2070 Cedar Dr · Southold, NY 11971

$989,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 211 Days on market

Built 1938 1.03 ac lot $824/sqft · 12% above area Est $879k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2070 Cedar Drive offers the kind of North Fork lifestyle buyers search for but rarely find — a welcoming home in a peaceful setting. There’s a sandy neighborhood beach right across the street and it’s positioned near other beaches, marinas, and North Fork vineyards. Located in a highly desirable Southold waterfront enclave, the property presents a compelling opportunity for both lifestyle buyers and long-term investors. Benefitting from strong seasonal demand and limited inventory in the immediate area, this 1.03-acre property represents not just a purchase — but a strategic hold in a supply-constrained coastal market. Beautifully updated and maintained, the two-bedroom, one-bath cottage features a cozy fireplace and gleaming hardwood floors, complemented by a recently renovated kitchen, glassed-in Florida room, central air, unfinished basement and a solid amount of upstairs bonus room space. Additional highlights include a generous two-car barn, lengthy circular driveway, and a serene park-like setting that enhances the overall appeal of this special property. Secure today. Appreciate tomorrow.

Key facts

• Park-like setting
• Two-car barn
• Circular driveway

Tags

• GOOSE CREEK PRIVATE BEACH
• RECENTLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GLASSED-IN FLORIDA ROOM
• TWO-CAR BARN
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• PARK-LIKE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $989k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($134k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $989k).
• Recommended offer: $870k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $277k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($870k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $989k implies a 421% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $870,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.51%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $879,138
• List price: $989,000
• Delta: 12.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Cedar Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	7mo	$650,000	$591	64
570 N North Bayview Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$690,000	$575	64
3700 Minnehaha Blvd	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$1,025,000	$896	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $552,659
• Equity at exit: $147,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $1,399,193
• Equity at exit: $85,511

Cash invested: $276,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,186
• Tax from tax record: −$663 /mo · $7,960/yr
• Insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,640
• Net cashflow: $11,194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,926

Max offer price $989,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $247,250
• Closing costs: $29,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1355 Watersedge Way Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$19,500	$16.25	24d	1	0.97mi
2662 Paradise Shores Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$25,000	$19.23	24d	1	0.98mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	43d	1	1.07mi
310 Old Shipyard Ln Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	43d	1	1.29mi
145 Founders Path Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	1.34mi
1235 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	2.0	1.5	1462	$4,000	$2.74	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $989,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $989,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $989,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $989,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $989,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $989,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $989,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $989,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $989,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    status Active 1137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1137 chars)

    2070 Cedar Drive offers the kind of North Fork lifestyle buyers search for but rarely find — a welcoming home in a peaceful setting. There’s a sandy neighborhood beach right across the street and it’s positioned near other beaches, marinas, and North Fork vineyards. Located in a highly desirable Southold waterfront enclave, the property presents a compelling opportunity for both lifestyle buyers and long-term investors. Benefitting from strong seasonal demand and limited inventory in the immediate area, this 1.03-acre property represents not just a purchase — but a strategic hold in a supply-constrained coastal market. Beautifully updated and maintained, the two-bedroom, one-bath cottage features a cozy fireplace and gleaming hardwood floors, complemented by a recently renovated kitchen, glassed-in Florida room, central air, unfinished basement and a solid amount of upstairs bonus room space. Additional highlights include a generous two-car barn, lengthy circular driveway, and a serene park-like setting that enhances the overall appeal of this special property. Secure today. Appreciate tomorrow.

11. 2026-05-12
    historical 1137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1137 chars)

    2070 Cedar Drive offers the kind of North Fork lifestyle buyers search for but rarely find — a welcoming home in a peaceful setting. There’s a sandy neighborhood beach right across the street and it’s positioned near other beaches, marinas, and North Fork vineyards. Located in a highly desirable Southold waterfront enclave, the property presents a compelling opportunity for both lifestyle buyers and long-term investors. Benefitting from strong seasonal demand and limited inventory in the immediate area, this 1.03-acre property represents not just a purchase — but a strategic hold in a supply-constrained coastal market. Beautifully updated and maintained, the two-bedroom, one-bath cottage features a cozy fireplace and gleaming hardwood floors, complemented by a recently renovated kitchen, glassed-in Florida room, central air, unfinished basement and a solid amount of upstairs bonus room space. Additional highlights include a generous two-car barn, lengthy circular driveway, and a serene park-like setting that enhances the overall appeal of this special property. Secure today. Appreciate tomorrow.

12. 2025-11-11
    listed $989,000 Active 1137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1137 chars)

    2070 Cedar Drive offers the kind of North Fork lifestyle buyers search for but rarely find — a welcoming home in a peaceful setting. There’s a sandy neighborhood beach right across the street and it’s positioned near other beaches, marinas, and North Fork vineyards. Located in a highly desirable Southold waterfront enclave, the property presents a compelling opportunity for both lifestyle buyers and long-term investors. Benefitting from strong seasonal demand and limited inventory in the immediate area, this 1.03-acre property represents not just a purchase — but a strategic hold in a supply-constrained coastal market. Beautifully updated and maintained, the two-bedroom, one-bath cottage features a cozy fireplace and gleaming hardwood floors, complemented by a recently renovated kitchen, glassed-in Florida room, central air, unfinished basement and a solid amount of upstairs bonus room space. Additional highlights include a generous two-car barn, lengthy circular driveway, and a serene park-like setting that enhances the overall appeal of this special property. Secure today. Appreciate tomorrow.

13. 2000-01-12
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,960 · $663/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,337 · $1,028/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,377/yr (+$365/mo · 55.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $265,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,399
• − Property taxes: −$7,960
• − Insurance: −$4,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,212
• − Management: −$21,212
• − Depreciation: −$28,771
• Taxable income: $125,650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30,156
• After-tax cash flow: $104,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+420.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $989,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,960 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.