8426 Rockford Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1948 6,960 sqft lot $114/sqft · 21% below area Est $127k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

8426 Rockford Dr offers a spacious homesite of approximately 6,960 square feet with the added privacy of no rear neighbors. This property presents a great opportunity as a fixer-upper or an ideal investment, with plenty of potential to customize and add value. Buyer is responsible for independently verifying all room dimensions.

Key facts

• Added privacy
• No rear neighbors
• Spacious homesite

Tags

• SPACIOUS HOMESITE
• ADDED PRIVACY
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• FIXER-UPPER
• IDEAL INVESTMENT
• PLENTY OF POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.79%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,508
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -20.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8426 Rockford Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	875 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$114	98
5218 Higgins St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (-3%)	9mo	$99,000	$116	66
8130 Sharondale Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	862 (-2%)	18mo	$110,000	$128	64
4917 Higgins St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+3%)	3mo	$75,000	$83	63
8130 Rockford Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	945 (+8%)	9mo	$169,999	$180	62
5622 Beldart St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (+14%)	2mo	$120,000	$120	57
4929 Paula St	0.46mi	3/1.0	989 (+13%)	13mo	$175,000	$177	46
5774 Belmark St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+7%)	11mo	$70,000	$75	43
5342 Wenda St	0.52mi	3/2.0	975 (+11%)	14mo	$149,000	$153	41
4922 Larkspur St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-14%)	17mo	$125,000	$165	40
4826 Alvin St	0.58mi	3/1.0	995 (+14%)	15mo	$165,000	$166	38
10225 Teneha Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	932 (+6%)	16mo	$124,000	$133	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,847
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $48,567
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,455/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	5d	1	0.23mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	0.34mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	44d	1	0.37mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	0.50mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	44d	1	0.66mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.75mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	1.09mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	1.16mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	1.21mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	24d	1	1.23mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	1.23mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	8d	1	1.28mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	2d	1	1.31mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	1.33mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 330-char remark

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   8426 Rockford Dr offers a spacious homesite of approximately 6,960 square feet with the added privacy of no rear neighbors. This property presents a great opportunity as a fixer-upper or an ideal investment, with plenty of potential to customize and add value. Buyer is responsible for independently verifying all room dimensions.

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $100,000 Active 330-char remark

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   8426 Rockford Dr offers a spacious homesite of approximately 6,960 square feet with the added privacy of no rear neighbors. This property presents a great opportunity as a fixer-upper or an ideal investment, with plenty of potential to customize and add value. Buyer is responsible for independently verifying all room dimensions.

3. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,455
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,472
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$593
• After-tax cash flow: $3,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,455 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.