12501 Ulmerton Rd #128 · Largo, FL 33774

$168,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1979 3,842 sqft lot Est $163k · at est. $260/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out the NEW PRICE! Own the Land. Live the Lifestyle. Minutes from the Beach. A SOLID Home with SOLID Plywood Floors and LOTS of Updates! Where else can you OWN your land and enjoy resort-style living just 6 minutes from world-famous Indian Rocks Beach—all while staying high & dry in an X flood zone? Welcome to this beautifully updated double-wide home in desirable Glenwood Estates, one of the Gulf Coast’s best-kept secrets! This move-in ready, low-maintenance home offers peace of mind with major updates already done: new A/C & thermostat (Dec 2024), water heater (Nov 2024), roofover (2018), updated master bath (2020), compliant CPVC plumbing throughout, a

Key facts

• Updated master bath
• Storm shutters
• Scenic lake

Tags

• UPDATED MASTER BATH
• STORM SHUTTERS
• HEATED POOL
• SCENIC LAKE
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY ROOM
• OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Homestead exempt; Zoning: R-6
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $260; total annual fees $3,120
• HOA & community: Monthly association/condo fee $260 (land included); Association amenities: clubhouse, gated community, park, pool, shuffleboard court; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, pool, maintenance of grounds, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Community features: clubhouse, pool, street lights, irrigation with reclaimed water, golf carts allowed; Pets allowed with number/weight limits (max 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking; Oversized parking; Carport (2 spaces)
• Security: Hurricane shutters; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water (canal/lake available for irrigation); Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby; Recycled water for sprinklers
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof with roof over; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Awnings; Sliding doors; Storage shed; Mature landscaping with trees; Irrigation equipment; Lake access with fishing pier; 20x40 gunite heated pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Dining area (L-shaped)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,932
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12501 Ulmerton Rd #122	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,035 (+2%)	0mo	$126,000	$122	96
12501 Ulmerton Rd #206	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	3mo	$165,000	$156	90
12501 Ulmerton Rd #129	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	3mo	$155,000	$161	89
12501 Ulmerton Rd #219	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	16mo	$179,000	$186	78
12501 Ulmerton Rd #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	0mo	$185,000	$161	77
12501 Ulmerton Rd #10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,086 (+7%)	14mo	$155,000	$143	76
12501 Ulmerton Rd #241	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	8mo	$170,000	$148	70
12501 Ulmerton Rd #34	0.00mi	2/2.0	886 (-12%)	14mo	$182,000	$205	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,319
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $24,526
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33774

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $470	+0% $423	+5% $375	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $338	+0% $423	+5% $508	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $465	base $423	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12800 Vonn Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,458	$1.80	3d	16	0.59mi
2503 Mary Sue St SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,211	$1.75	14d	1	0.61mi
13001 120th St Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,950	$1.87	8d	1	0.65mi
13125 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,830	$2.18	2d	8	0.66mi
13200 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	932	$1,755	$1.88	4d	2	0.67mi
2316 Fulton Way Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,699	$2.23	5d	1	0.69mi
11980 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	3	0.74mi
11980 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.74mi
11960 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$2,150	$2.30	8d	1	0.75mi
11960 133rd Ave Unit 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.75mi
11938 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	1	0.76mi
11704 127th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,345	$1.79	5d	1	0.76mi
11938 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.76mi
1825 134th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	25d	1	0.77mi
11666 126th Ter Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,183	$2.07	25d	1	0.78mi
13300 Walsingham Rd Largo, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,788	$1.69	25d	1	0.83mi
2200 Gladys St Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	677	$1,595	$2.35	25d	1	0.83mi
13584 Twig Ter Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$4,200	$3.29	5d	1	0.83mi
12497 136th Ln Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,950	$2.19	25d	1	0.87mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,800	$3.15	25d	1	0.88mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,450	$2.76	22d	1	0.88mi
1448 Oak St Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	5d	1	0.92mi
1884 Pine St Largo, FL	3.0	1.5	1012	$2,499	$2.47	22d	1	0.98mi
1741 Trotter Rd Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	25d	1	1.02mi
1830 30th Ln SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,725	$1.95	14d	1	1.03mi
13250 Ridge Rd Unit 3B1 Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,975	$1.61	18d	1	1.06mi
3054 Adrian Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1059	$3,500	$3.31	5d	1	1.07mi
1628 Pine St Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	25d	1	1.10mi
2272 16th Ave SW Unit C Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1031	$2,600	$2.52	25d	1	1.11mi
3115 Adrian Ave Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	5d	1	1.13mi
13333 Ridge Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	860	$1,765	$2.05	8d	1	1.15mi
11201 122nd Ave Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,300	$2.65	5d	2	1.16mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$1,900	$1.59	8d	1	1.16mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	17d	1	1.16mi
3223 Dryer Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.22mi
14130 Rosemary Ln Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	880	$1,725	$1.96	21d	2	1.26mi
9 Jeff Rd Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	964	$2,150	$2.23	5d	1	1.29mi
2317 13th Ave SW Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1189	$2,309	$1.94	17d	1	1.36mi
12100 Seminole Blvd Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	25d	1	1.39mi
14283 Sharon Dr Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,590	$1.97	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $168,000
14. 2026-03-29
    price $178,000
15. 2026-01-30
    listed $193,000 Active
16. 2026-01-29
    historical
17. 2025-07-31
    listed $193,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 64.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $2,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$634
• After-tax cash flow: $4,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,799
• Household income: $79,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.61%
• Current HPI: 336.629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $193,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $193,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.