1951 Alder · Elgin, OR 97827

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1971 0.48 ac lot Est $246k · 35% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This ranch home sets on . 48 of an acre. There are 3 bedrooms 1 & 1/2 bath, enclosed front porch with additional enclosed back porch. There is several outbuildings, room for RV parking and unattached garage. With this much space it could have endless possibilities. Within walking distance to store and school.

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Room for rv parking
• Several outbuildings

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
• ROOM FOR RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#98 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, commute D.
• Elgin SD 23 (rural): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #114 of 183 in OR (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stella Mayfield Elementary School (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D-, #132 of 412 statewide, top 34%, 234 students, 73% FRL); Elgin High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #131 of 143 statewide, top 94%, 171 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,952
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
95 S 17th Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,220 (-9%)	3mo	$184,000	$151	68
—	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,395 (+4%)	22mo	$770,000	$552	67
1135 Detroit St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,426 (+6%)	5mo	$175,000	$123	59
265 N 14th Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+8%)	4mo	$177,100	$122	59
101 N 13th St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-15%)	13mo	$245,000	$215	44
1310 Evangeline Ter	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-14%)	7mo	$212,500	$183	40
750 N 13th Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	23mo	$230,000	$194	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,792
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $25,223
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97827

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,026/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $393	+0% $347	+5% $302	+10% $257
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $276	+0% $347	+5% $419	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $388	base $347	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
625 N 13th Ave Elgin, OR	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,800	$1.58	4d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $160,000
3. 2026-03-11
   price $180,000
4. 2026-02-10
   price $200,000
5. 2025-11-05
   price $220,000
6. 2025-10-16
   listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,026
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$408
• After-tax cash flow: $3,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin SD 23
• NCES district ID: 4104590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #9488
• State rank: #114 of 183 in OR

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #5083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,557

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,207 people
• By 2030: 24,794 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,658 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 22,897 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 20,885 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 28.1% · R 68.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+30.8 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.14%
• Current HPI: 212.464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $160,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $180,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $200,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $220,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $230,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,026 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.