Kiel II Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$355,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 632 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your new home in Forney, TX at Gateway Parks. This master-planned community features a variety of floorplans with up to 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, and 3,164 sq. ft. Here, residents can enjoy on-site amenities including multiple pools and a community clubhouse. Each beautiful home offer the perfect blend of modern design from the inside out with K. Hovnanian's Looks. Whether you prefer a Loft, Farmhouse, Classic, or Elements style, our professional design team has carefully curated unique interiors to provide a cohesive aesthetic throughout your new home from the start. Convenience is key at Gateway Parks, with its fantastic location, beautiful homes, and resort-style amenities, it's the perfect place to call home. Offered By: K. Hovnanian DFW Gateway Parks, LLC The Kiel II offers: Great room and cozy dining area with direct access to the outdoors. Kitchen with spacious island and beautiful cabinets. Primary suite with wall of windows and primary bath featuring dual sinks. Versatile loft space to use as a media room and Stuff of Life room for storage. 2-car garage with direct access to HovHall ideal for keeping your home tidy.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 631 days

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• PROFESSIONAL DESIGN TEAM
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $355,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $413,444.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $356k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 737 students, 50% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 632 days — a 12% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,401 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 632 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $413,444
• List price: $355,900
• Delta: -13.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1818 Bachman Ln	0.12mi	5/4.0	2,612 (-0%)	1mo	$425,000	$163	92
1522 Bushman Ln	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,612 (-0%)	2mo	$425,000	$163	90
1934 Sand Springs St	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,698 (+3%)	3mo	$385,000	$143	75
1811 Bachman Ln	0.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,878 (+10%)	2mo	$435,000	$151	69
1569 Wyler Dr	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,568 (-2%)	3mo	$350,000	$136	69
1244 Caprock Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,735 (+4%)	1mo	$475,000	$174	63
1817 Bachman Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-14%)	2mo	$427,000	$190	59
1553 Sugarberry Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,298 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$152	48
1817 Lockhart Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,322 (-12%)	3mo	$372,400	$160	45
10924 Bradley Cir	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,007 (+15%)	3mo	$600,000	$200	36
1246 Herring Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,338 (-11%)	2mo	$299,000	$128	34
9940 Highland Prairie Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (-15%)	1mo	$400,000	$179	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-109,309
• Equity at exit: $61,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-161,596
• Equity at exit: $35,747

Cash invested: $115,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,000 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$517 /mo · $6,202/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,617

Max offer price $327,397

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-309	-5% $-452	+0% $-595	+5% $-738	+10% $-880
Rent	-10% $-821	-5% $-708	+0% $-595	+5% $-482	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-489	base $-595	+0.5pp $-702	+1.0pp $-811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,361
• Closing costs: $12,403
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1926 Honey Creek Rd Forney, TX	4.0	4.5	2874	$3,000	$1.04	93d	1	0.05mi
1840 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2717	$2,566	$0.94	56d	1	0.09mi
1825 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2306	$2,450	$1.06	93d	1	0.13mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,010	$0.86	43d	1	0.16mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,076	$0.89	56d	1	0.16mi
1804 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,151	$0.92	70d	1	0.23mi
1633 Glacier Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$3,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.26mi
1312 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2890	$3,400	$1.18	43d	1	0.31mi
1422 Greenbelt Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.5	2667	$3,500	$1.31	37d	1	0.32mi
1273 Palmetto Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3370	$3,000	$0.89	93d	1	0.35mi
1284 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2982	$3,300	$1.11	73d	1	0.37mi
1656 Deerpath Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	26d	1	0.37mi
1553 Sugarberry Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2348	$2,900	$1.24	64d	1	0.41mi
1829 Arbor Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2171	$2,500	$1.15	7d	1	0.43mi
1836 Big Spring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$2,900	$1.08	93d	1	0.43mi
1644 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2810	$2,795	$0.99	93d	1	0.43mi
1665 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2907	$3,095	$1.06	37d	1	0.44mi
1688 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2690	$2,850	$1.06	12d	1	0.46mi
1557 Wyler Dr Unit 1557 Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2064	$2,850	$1.38	93d	1	0.47mi
1829 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,250	$1.23	43d	1	0.49mi
1877 Arbor Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2646	$2,700	$1.02	4d	1	0.53mi
1820 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2140	$2,700	$1.26	0d	1	0.53mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	93d	1	0.54mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	93d	1	0.55mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	56d	1	0.55mi
1552 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2874	$3,000	$1.04	38d	1	0.56mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	93d	1	0.58mi
1836 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,350	$1.24	40d	1	0.60mi
1855 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,900	$1.52	0d	1	0.60mi
1870 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1925	$2,999	$1.56	23d	1	0.63mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	43d	1	0.63mi
1874 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2212	$3,090	$1.40	23d	1	0.64mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	73d	1	0.64mi
1869 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$2,949	$1.28	1d	1	0.65mi
1871 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2060	$2,700	$1.31	1d	1	0.65mi
1257 Herring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3131	$3,495	$1.12	16d	1	0.67mi
1253 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,350	$1.23	93d	1	0.67mi
1210 Lambert Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,695	$1.15	73d	1	0.68mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,750	$1.34	37d	1	0.69mi
1237 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,400	$1.03	93d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $355,900 Active 632 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $355,900 Active 630 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $355,900 Active 629 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $355,900 Active 628 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $355,900 Active 627 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $355,900 Active 624 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $355,900 Active 623 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $355,900 Active 622 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $355,900 Active 621 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $355,900 Active 619 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $355,900 Active 617 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $355,900 Active 616 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $355,900 Active 615 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $355,900 Active 614 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $355,900 Active 613 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,900 Active 611 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,900 Active 610 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,900 Active 609 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $355,900 Active 608 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $355,900 Active 607 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,900 Active 606 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,900 Active 605 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $355,900 Active 604 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $355,900 Active 603 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $355,900 Active 602 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $355,900 Active 600 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,900 Active 599 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,900 Active 598 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $355,900 Active 597 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $355,900 Active 596 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $355,900 Active 595 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $355,900 Active 594 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $355,900 Active 593 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $355,900 Active 592 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $355,900 Active 591 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $355,900 Active 590 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $355,900 Active 589 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $355,900 Active 587 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $355,900 Active 585 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $355,900 Active 584 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $355,900 Active 581 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $355,900 Active 580 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $355,900 Active 579 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $355,900 Active 578 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $355,900 Active 576 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $355,900 Active 575 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $355,900 Active 572 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $355,900 Active 571 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,900 Active 570 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,900 Active 567 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,159
• − Property taxes: −$6,202
• − Insurance: −$2,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − Depreciation: −$12,027
• Taxable loss: −$14,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Forney, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New roof inspection — Ensures long-term durability and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henderson El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $355,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $365,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $360,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $355,900 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $385,900 Zillow
• 2024-11-14 Listed $415,900 Zillow