40341 Redbud Dr · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1981 0.32 ac lot Est $305k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractor special! So much potential and opportunity with this fixer upper close to town. While the home potentially requires many repairs and updates, the roof was replaced in November of 2025.This will not qualify for traditional financing, bring your cash. Selling as is, the seller will not pay for inspections or repairs. The before is a little rough but you could turn it into a gorgeous after. Shopping and dining are close by and you are only 17 miles to the entrance to Yosemite National Park! If the woodstove is not EPA Phase II compliant, it will be removed and not replaced. Check out the possibilities.

Key facts

• Roof replaced
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Location: 40341 Redbud Dr, Oakhurst, CA (Madera County); Directions: Highway 49 to Redbud Drive, home on the left.
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 1-car garage
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: One-level home; Foothill lot setting; Composition roof; Wood siding; Concrete foundation; No solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and central air
• Interior features: Laundry located in the garage; Central heating and cooling
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.5% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.21%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,244
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48220 White Oak Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+4%)	7mo	$317,000	$244	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,021
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $51,871
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $761	-5% $693	+0% $625	+5% $558	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $521	+0% $625	+5% $730	+10% $835
Rate	-1.0pp $746	-0.5pp $686	base $625	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48790 Quail Dr Oakhurst, CA	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,650	$1.71	13d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $239,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-29
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 50 unhealthy d/yr today · 55 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $3,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $6,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $239,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.