12632 Creagerstown Rd · Graceham, MD 21788

$220,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1959 1.90 ac lot $160/sqft · 38% below area Est $352k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare opportunity to create something truly special on a beautiful 1.9-acre setting with sweeping pastoral views. Nestled beyond a line of mature trees, this property offers a serene, private backdrop that feels miles away while remaining conveniently close to major commuter routes. The existing home features a spacious footprint with an open layout and generously sized bedrooms, providing a starting point for renovation or the perfect canvas for a complete reimagination. An oversized detached garage adds exceptional flexibility—ideal for storage, a workshop, or future creative use. Whether you’re looking to restore, rebuild, or design your dream home from the ground up, the potential here is undeniable. Enjoy the best of both worlds: peaceful country surroundings with easy access to everyday conveniences. Please note: The first 30 days of the listing are reserved for owner-occupant purchasers. Owner-occupant offers will be reviewed after seven days on the market.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Spacious footprint
• 1.9-acre setting

Tags

• 1.9-ACRE SETTING
• PASTORAL VIEWS
• MATURE TREES
• SERENE PRIVATE BACKDROP
• SPACIOUS FOOTPRINT
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $220k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,136 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,013
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -37.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12622 Creagerstown Rd	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (+9%)	9mo	$320,000	$212	68
12615 Eaton Rd	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$350,000	$280	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,274
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-49,713
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21788

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,427/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $196,133

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $220,000 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    A rare opportunity to create something truly special on a beautiful 1.9-acre setting with sweeping pastoral views. Nestled beyond a line of mature trees, this property offers a serene, private backdrop that feels miles away while remaining conveniently close to major commuter routes. The existing home features a spacious footprint with an open layout and generously sized bedrooms, providing a starting point for renovation or the perfect canvas for a complete reimagination. An oversized detached garage adds exceptional flexibility—ideal for storage, a workshop, or future creative use. Whether you’re looking to restore, rebuild, or design your dream home from the ground up, the potential here is undeniable. Enjoy the best of both worlds: peaceful country surroundings with easy access to everyday conveniences. Please note: The first 30 days of the listing are reserved for owner-occupant purchasers. Owner-occupant offers will be reviewed after seven days on the market.

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $230,000 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    A rare opportunity to create something truly special on a beautiful 1.9-acre setting with sweeping pastoral views. Nestled beyond a line of mature trees, this property offers a serene, private backdrop that feels miles away while remaining conveniently close to major commuter routes. The existing home features a spacious footprint with an open layout and generously sized bedrooms, providing a starting point for renovation or the perfect canvas for a complete reimagination. An oversized detached garage adds exceptional flexibility—ideal for storage, a workshop, or future creative use. Whether you’re looking to restore, rebuild, or design your dream home from the ground up, the potential here is undeniable. Enjoy the best of both worlds: peaceful country surroundings with easy access to everyday conveniences. Please note: The first 30 days of the listing are reserved for owner-occupant purchasers. Owner-occupant offers will be reviewed after seven days on the market.

17. 1996-12-19
    soldstatus $105,900
18. 1996-12-19
    soldstatus $67,000
19. 1996-10-14
    historical
20. 1996-10-09
    listed
21. 1996-09-30
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 1996-08-28
    historical
23. 1996-08-21
    listed $59,900
24. 1987-06-30
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,427
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $-300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $84,020
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5429
• State rank: #4 of 24 in MD

Livability — Graceham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,919

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 269,438 people
• By 2030: 280,160 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 298,408 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 311,062 · +15.4%
• By 2075: 342,819 · +27.2%
• By 2100: 351,361 · +30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.8) · D 53.2% · R 44.4% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -1.0pp · 2024: 8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.8 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: R+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.36%
• Current HPI: 280.8404
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+214.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $105,900 Public Records
• 1996-10-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-10-09 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-09-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRIS
• 1996-08-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-08-21 Listed $59,900 MRIS
• 1987-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,427 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.