WHITETAIL Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$262,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily · 312 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 311 days

Tags

• TRANQUIL COUNTRY LIVING
• SHOPPING AND DINING OPTIONS
• RECREATION AT BELL PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $262,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,028.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($490/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $263k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $231,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,028
• List price: $262,999
• Delta: -11.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2103 Martins Pond Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,044 (+0%)	1mo	$275,000	$135	91
2009 Brackett Pond Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,952 (-4%)	1mo	$306,949	$157	85
534 Tuscany Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,069 (+2%)	2mo	$344,989	$167	79
1210 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+1%)	1mo	$300,999	$146	78
1208 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-6%)	2mo	$287,999	$151	69
1715 Guswood Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (-12%)	2mo	$288,099	$160	62
104 Acadia Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,996 (-2%)	1mo	$294,900	$148	60
605 Marlee Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (+1%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	57
2060 Glaston Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (-7%)	2mo	$295,000	$156	56
2151 Winsbury Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (-4%)	3mo	$319,450	$164	52
1128 Redcoat Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+15%)	2mo	$316,690	$136	38
2122 Winsbury Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-13%)	0mo	$285,000	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-49,461
• Equity at exit: $44,139

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-55,989
• Equity at exit: $25,595

Cash invested: $82,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,440/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,590

Max offer price $296,028

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $143	+0% $41	+5% $-61	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-63	+0% $41	+5% $145	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $116	base $41	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,007
• Closing costs: $8,881
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	19d	1	0.23mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	44d	1	0.24mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	5d	1	0.27mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	44d	1	0.32mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	0.41mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	3d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	44d	1	0.44mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	25d	1	0.45mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	21d	1	0.45mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	17d	1	0.46mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	8d	1	0.46mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	0d	1	0.51mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	5d	1	0.51mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	44d	1	0.52mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	0d	30	0.56mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	18d	1	0.59mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	44d	1	0.62mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	44d	1	0.64mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	25d	1	0.65mi
209 Chesapeake Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$3,400	$1.15	44d	1	0.66mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	13d	1	0.67mi
2902 Hanscom St Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2657	$3,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.67mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	2d	1	0.69mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	0.70mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	2d	1	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	25d	1	0.73mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.85mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	3d	1	0.85mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	44d	1	0.87mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	25d	1	0.87mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	20d	1	0.88mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	25d	1	0.91mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	6d	1	0.93mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	8d	1	0.95mi
1036 Edgefield Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2800	$6,700	$2.39	44d	1	0.95mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	8d	1	0.96mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	25d	1	0.96mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	25d	1	0.97mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	19d	1	0.99mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $262,999 Active 312 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,999 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,999 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,999 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,999 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,999 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,999 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,999 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $262,999 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,999 Active 298 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,999 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,999 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,999 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,999 Active 291 DOM
16. 2025-08-13
    listed $262,999 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

17. 2025-02-08
    status Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

18. 2025-02-07
    historical 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

19. 2024-12-15
    price $262,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

20. 2024-12-06
    price $284,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

21. 2024-10-08
    price $281,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

22. 2024-09-27
    listed $279,999 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,582
• − Property taxes: −$4,440
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$8,612
• Taxable loss: −$4,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a spacious open layout and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-13 Listed $262,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $284,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $281,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Listed $279,999 Zillow