2570 Turberry Dr · West Columbia, TX 77486

$375,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2021 0.26 ac lot Est $391k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL LOT IN COLUMBIA LAKES JUST WAITING FOR YOU TO BUILD YOUR DREAM HOME!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open-concept layout
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of the Colombia Lakes association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.26 acres (11,143 sq ft); Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x16); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (each 12x12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Columbia El (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 60% FRL); West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL); Columbia H S (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 889 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,375
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
553 Green Meadows Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,556 (+1%)	8mo	$394,900	$154	72
2523 Turberry Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,258 (-11%)	6mo	$349,000	$155	69
2319 Ridgewood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,513 (-0%)	3mo	$378,939	$151	68
208 S Amherst Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,507 (-1%)	4mo	$310,939	$124	67
332 N Amherst Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,615 (+4%)	4mo	$370,000	$141	62
213 N Amherst Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,342 (-7%)	2mo	$369,500	$158	61
271 S Amherst Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,487 (-2%)	7mo	$515,000	$207	58
417 N Amherst Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,161 (-14%)	6mo	$359,000	$166	48
2334 Ridgewood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+9%)	7mo	$390,000	$142	47
2252 Ridgewood Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-8%)	8mo	$378,000	$163	46
213 Woodhaven	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,219 (-12%)	3mo	$369,990	$167	45
212 South Amherst Dr	0.56mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,817 (+12%)	4mo	$346,997	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $111,440
• Equity at exit: $275,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $348,866
• Equity at exit: $538,094

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$548 /mo · $6,581/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,381

Max offer price $279,919

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 500-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 499-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 441-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $375,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,581 · $548/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,862 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$6,581
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$13,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+735.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-02 Listed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+70.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,581 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.