19743 E Good Fishin Ave · Susitna North, AK 99688

$125,000

1 bd · None ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1999 Fair condition 3.12 ac lot Est $140k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked at the end of Good Fishin Ave, this Willow dry cabin sits on 3 lots totaling 3.12 acres with borough land on three sides. Features a private well supplying a water storage tank, sink with pump system, wood stove, solar powered LED lighting, and an outhouse. New septic is on site but not connected.

Key facts

• 3.12 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached; Wood frame (2x6) construction; Built in 1999
• Construction: Wood frame (2x6); Metal roof; Built in 1999
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Interior features: Outhouse

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.7% in Susitna North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#128 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Susitna Valley High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 221 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 33% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $513 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-351 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49401 S Cutthroat Dr	0.11mi	1/1.0	800 (+11%)	20mo	$155,000	$194	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,826
• Equity at exit: $34,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $34,020
• Equity at exit: $40,164

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 305-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $2,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to its kitchen and interior finishes to improve its condition and value. The exposed wiring and unfinished surfaces are major issues that need addressing.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed wiring — Safety hazard
• Major Unfinished cabinets — Aesthetically unappealing
• Major Unfinished surfaces — Aesthetically unappealing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen appliances and cabinets would significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both Paint and finish interior walls — Aesthetically pleasing and functional interior would attract more buyers
• Both Replace exposed wiring — Safety and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed wiring · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Unfinished cabinets · Aesthetically unappealing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Unfinished surfaces · Aesthetically unappealing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen appliances and cabinets would significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Paint and finish interior walls — Aesthetically pleasing and functional interior would attract more buyers ↑
• Both Replace exposed wiring — Safety and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna North

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #22801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susitna North, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+227.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $150,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $159,000 AKMLS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $164,000 AKMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $169,000 AKMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $179,000 AKMLS
• 2018-08-07 Listed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2017-09-29 Listed $55,000 AKMLS
• 2010-06-18 Listed $38,200 AKMLS