816 Post Way · Cave Springs, AR 72718

$615,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2023 9,583 sqft lot Est $580k · 6% over $44/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2.5 bath Game Room, Open Floor Plan, Extended Covered patio Quartz Counter tops Hardwood Floors

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Allen's Mill); Association fee $525 annually; Community features: playground, pool, near schools, shopping

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with garage door opener; 3 covered parking spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Septic available (septic tank)
• Home design: 2 stories; Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Public road frontage; Located in a subdivision; City lot
• Construction: Built with brick; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio/porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range hood; Plumbed for ice maker; Quartz counters; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Simulated wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Attic; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Programmable thermostat; Quartz counters; Split bedrooms; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $404k (34.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $358k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#41 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $357,962 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $579,618
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Post Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,477 (0%)	0mo	$615,000	$248	99
5900 S 67th St	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,473 (-0%)	0mo	$560,000	$226	81
6201 Tumbler Rdg	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,403 (-3%)	1mo	$575,000	$239	75
1013 Charing Cross	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,531 (+2%)	0mo	$570,000	$225	71
807 Bellmara Cir	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,510 (+1%)	2mo	$581,000	$231	68
6614 W Braebourne Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,344 (-5%)	1mo	$575,000	$245	66
5701 S 66th St	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (-10%)	0mo	$510,000	$229	60
1425 S Hampton Xing	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,264 (-9%)	1mo	$529,000	$234	58
5601 65th St	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,718 (+10%)	0mo	$595,000	$219	58
6307 S 58th St	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,197 (-11%)	2mo	$532,000	$242	51
6414 S 63rd St	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,830 (+14%)	1mo	$707,000	$250	46
6100 W Bainbridge Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,805 (+13%)	0mo	$595,000	$212	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $258,810
• Equity at exit: $554,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $821,786
• Equity at exit: $1,194,810

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72718

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,161/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $-1,194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,091

Max offer price $404,068

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6502 W Hearth Falls Dr Unit 1221804P Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2443	$6,688	$2.74	14d	1	0.48mi
6508 W Stone Lake Dr Unit 1221824P Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2271	$7,860	$3.46	14d	1	0.55mi
5313 S Stone Bay Ct Rogers, AR	4.0	3.0	2110	$3,300	$1.56	14d	1	0.78mi
6506 W Knoll View Way Rogers, AR	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,700	$1.55	14d	1	0.80mi
5217 S 65th Pl Rogers, AR	3.0	2.5	2055	$2,290	$1.11	14d	1	0.81mi
5217 S 65th Pl Rogers, AR	3.0	2.5	2055	$2,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.81mi
6613 W Valley View Rd Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2475	$3,000	$1.21	23d	1	0.91mi
6683 W Valley View Rd Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2477	$3,500	$1.41	23d	1	0.96mi
6505 S 50th St Rogers, AR	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,850	$1.13	14d	1	0.98mi
6665 W Valley View Rd Rogers, AR	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,950	$1.53	23d	1	1.02mi
4608 W Quelinda Dr Rogers, AR	4.0	3.0	2859	$3,000	$1.05	23d	1	1.17mi
7 S Prairie Dunes Dr Rogers, AR	3.0	2.5	1773	$3,800	$2.14	13d	1	1.28mi
507 Ashwood St Lowell, AR	5.0	3.5	2352	$2,395	$1.02	13d	1	1.33mi
4607 S 47th St Rogers, AR	3.0	2.5	1854	$5,000	$2.70	23d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $615,000 Active
3. 2023-09-29
   soldstatus $544,885 Closed 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   4 bedroom 2.5 bath Game Room, Open Floor Plan, Extended Covered patio Quartz Counter tops Hardwood Floors

4. 2023-03-01
   status Pending 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   4 bedroom 2.5 bath Game Room, Open Floor Plan, Extended Covered patio Quartz Counter tops Hardwood Floors

5. 2023-03-01
   listed $544,885 Active 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   4 bedroom 2.5 bath Game Room, Open Floor Plan, Extended Covered patio Quartz Counter tops Hardwood Floors

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$5,161
• − Insurance: −$3,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,436
• − Management: −$3,436
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable loss: −$25,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cave Springs

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #6981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Springs, AR
• City population: 5,528
• Population (ZIP): 5,528

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.26%
• Current HPI: 334.6594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+12.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $615,000 NWARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $544,885 NWARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listed $544,885 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+192.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,161 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.