402 3rd St · Melbourne, IA 50162

$124,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 0.26 ac lot Est $144k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this spacious two-story home filled with years of memories and opportunity for its next chapter. Offering 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, this home features a functional layout with a main floor bedroom and convenient main floor laundry. Upstairs you’ll find three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom, providing plenty of space for family, guests, hobbies, or a home office setup. Outside, many of the big-ticket improvements have already been completed, including updated siding, roof, windows, gutters, fascia, and soffit; giving the home great curb appeal and peace of mind for future owners. The detached 2-stall garage also offers a fantastic bonus workspace area in the bac

Key facts

• Updated siding
• Updated windows
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• UPDATED SIDING
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED GUTTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single family residence; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#503 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• West Marshall Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #56 of 289 in IA (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $125k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,207 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,520
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 4th Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	4mo	$149,000	$115	79
407 2nd Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-5%)	4mo	$147,000	$124	69
503 Butler St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	10mo	$141,900	$109	62
507 2nd Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,293 (+4%)	22mo	$251,000	$194	57
20 2nd St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-11%)	24mo	$120,000	$108	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,123
• Equity at exit: $58,247

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $75,589
• Equity at exit: $91,422

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50162

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $163	+0% $128	+5% $93	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $82	+0% $128	+5% $173	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $160	base $128	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    listing id $124,900 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$529/yr (+$44/mo · 58.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Marshall Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1931080
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $58,531
• Composite: 64.72/100
• National rank: #521
• State rank: #56 of 289 in IA

Livability — Melbourne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #503
• US rank: #11207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melbourne, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,166 people
• By 2030: 41,477 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 42,548 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 44,472 · +8.0%
• By 2075: 52,719 · +28.1%
• By 2100: 60,912 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: R (+15.6) · D 41.4% · R 57.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: -15.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.6 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+8.5 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Current HPI: 222.5724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+494.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $124,900 IAR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $124,900 DMMLS
• 2005-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.