816 Black Cherry Dr S #816 · St Johns, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Schools +8.0/10.0
- Cash flow +7.6/30.0
- 1% rule +4.8/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$199,000
816 Black Cherry Dr S #816 · St Johns, FL 32259
2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,268 sqft · Condo
· 126 Days on market
Built 2006
1-car garage
$157/sqft
· 20% below area
Est $250k · 20% under
$400/mo HOA · 21% of rent
↓ 4% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Discover low-maintenance living in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with a 1-car garage in the desirable Cypress Trace community of St. Johns County. Offering nearly 1,300 square feet of functional living space, this home features an open-concept first floor with a spacious kitchen and living area, convenient half bath, and a private rear patio overlooking a peaceful preserve with a privacy partition--perfect for relaxing outdoors. Upstairs, both bedrooms include private en-suite bathrooms, providing comfort and convenience. Zoned for top-rated St.
Key facts
- Gated community
- Tennis courts
- Pool
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $165k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in St Johns — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Durbin Creek Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #43 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 959 students, 13% FRL); Fruit Cove Middle School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #28 of 571 statewide, top 5%, 1,223 students, 6% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 1103 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$164,599
(17.3% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.98% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.86%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.12%
- DSCR
- 0.77
- GRM
- 8.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $250,052
- List price
- $199,000
- Delta
- -20.42%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 843 Black Cherry Dr S | 0.07mi | 2/2.5 | 1,268 (0%) | 6mo | $194,000 | $153 | 92 |
| 872 Black Cherry Dr S | 0.10mi | 2/2.5 | 1,268 (0%) | 6mo | $196,000 | $155 | 91 |
| 827 Black Cherry Dr S | 0.05mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,468 (+16%) | 6mo | $221,500 | $151 | 63 |
| 6169 Bartram Village Dr | 1.20mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,368 (+8%) | 5mo | $278,000 | $203 | 42 |
| 6151 Bartram Village Dr | 1.22mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,368 (+8%) | 7mo | $233,400 | $171 | 41 |
| 6199 Bartram Village Dr | 1.16mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,412 (+11%) | 1mo | $243,000 | $172 | 40 |
| 5980 Bartram Village Dr | 1.45mi | 2/2.5 | 1,520 (+20%) | 6mo | $250,000 | $164 | 35 |
| 335 Boulder Ln | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,503 (+18%) | 7mo | $412,000 | $274 | 35 |
| 78 Stonecrest Dr | 0.61mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,501 (+18%) | 8mo | $390,000 | $260 | 33 |
| 65 Whistler Trce | 1.01mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,516 (+20%) | 1mo | $455,000 | $300 | 32 |
| 5926 Bartram Village Dr #5926 | 1.40mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,520 (+20%) | 5mo | $270,000 | $178 | 31 |
| 6155 Bartram Village Dr | 1.22mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,558 (+23%) | 7mo | $274,000 | $176 | 27 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -29.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.05×
- Total profit
- $-52,817
- Equity at exit
- $29,672
10-year hold
- IRR
- -57.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.55×
- Total profit
- $-86,413
- Equity at exit
- $17,206
Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
ZIP-level market 32259
- Home prices YoY
- -28.8%
- Rents YoY
- 0.0%
- Active inventory
- 1103
- Price-to-rent
- 8.5×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,946 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,044
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
- Insurance
- −$83
- HOA
- −$400
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$409
- Net cashflow
- $-238
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,247
Max offer price
$164,599
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-100 | -5% $-169 | +0% $-238 | +5% $-307 | +10% $-375 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-391 | -5% $-315 | +0% $-238 | +5% $-161 | +10% $-84 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-138 | -0.5pp $-187 | base $-238 | +0.5pp $-289 | +1.0pp $-342 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $49,750
- Closing costs
- $5,970
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 438 Walnut Dr Saint Johns, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1296 | $1,866 | $1.44 | 7d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 452 Walnut Dr St Johns, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1492 | $2,050 | $1.37 | 74d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 130 N Big Cypress Dr Saint Johns, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1090 | $1,820 | $1.67 | 2d | 16 | 0.16mi |
| 125 Grand Cypress Dr St Johns, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1022 | $1,796 | $1.76 | 0d | 46 | 0.26mi |
| 50 Lago Mar Way Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 941 | $1,981 | $2.10 | 0d | 11 | 0.39mi |
| 14951 Walden Springs Way Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1121 | $1,830 | $1.63 | 85d | 21 | 0.44mi |
| 14951 Walden Springs Way Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1184 | $1,592 | $1.34 | 0d | 14 | 0.44mi |
| 234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1592 | $2,700 | $1.70 | 117d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1592 | $2,700 | $1.70 | 119d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 94 Carlson Ct Ponte Vedra, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1447 | $2,448 | $1.69 | 88d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 6131 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1368 | $1,900 | $1.39 | 112d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 6131 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1368 | $1,800 | $1.32 | 74d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 6119 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1558 | $2,200 | $1.41 | 82d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 6070 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1773 | $2,075 | $1.17 | 4d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 5922 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1760 | $1,700 | $0.97 | 9d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 5924 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1520 | $1,999 | $1.32 | 100d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 11849 Palm Bay Pkwy Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1082 | $1,724 | $1.59 | 0d | 27 | 1.48mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Has associationAssociation fee $300 monthlyAdditional association fee $100 monthlyNot a senior community
Exterior
- Parking
- Garage1-car garage
- Utilities
- Sewer connectedWater connectedCable available
- Home design
- Condominium2 storiesProperty is attachedResidential use
- Exterior features
- No private poolSewer connectedWater connectedCable available
Interior
- Kitchen
- Includes dishwasher, electric range, microwave, refrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryer
HOA detail $400/mo · $4,800/yr condo
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $199,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $199,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-09-18pricedays on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $209,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $209,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $209,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $209,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $209,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $209,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $209,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $209,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $209,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $209,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $209,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $209,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $209,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $209,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $209,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $209,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $209,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $209,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-20pricedays on market $209,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $219,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $219,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $219,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $219,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $219,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $219,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $219,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $219,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $219,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $219,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $219,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $219,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $219,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $219,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $219,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $219,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $219,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $219,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $219,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $219,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $219,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $219,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $219,000 Active 57 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,355
- − Mortgage interest
- −$11,147
- − Property taxes
- −$2,985
- − Insurance
- −$995
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,868
- − Management
- −$1,868
- − HOA
- −$4,800
- − Depreciation
- −$5,789
- Taxable loss
- −$6,098
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,464
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,389/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $6,340–$19,020 screening
This well-maintained townhome in a desirable community offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.
Repairs flagged
- Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
- Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
- Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
A
Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Durbin Creek Elementary School
A+
FL #43/2,144
Nat'l #526/41,679
Middle
Fruit Cove Middle School
A
FL #28/571
Nat'l #399/14,009
High
Creekside High School
A-
FL #27/667
Nat'l #1,121/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- St. Johns
- NCES district ID
- 1201740
- Math proficiency
- 75% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 73% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $66,842
- Composite
- 64.31/100
- National rank
- #556
- State rank
- #2 of 73 in FL
Livability — St Johns
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Saint Johns County · 303,941 people
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 75,016
- Household income
- $150,736
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 8% of renters
Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 303,941 people
- By 2030
- 342,590 · +12.7%
- By 2040
- 417,328 · +37.3%
- By 2050
- 487,011 · +60.2%
- By 2075
- 635,395 · +109.1%
- By 2100
- 717,469 · +136.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (73%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 73% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%
Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -105.54%
- Current HPI
- 261.2552
- Rent YoY
- ▬ 0.00%
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
-4.4% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-06 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
- 2026-06-16 Price Changed $225,000 realMLS
- 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 realMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…