816 Black Cherry Dr S #816 · St Johns, FL 32259

$219,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,268 sqft · Condo · 79 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition 1-car garage $173/sqft · 14% below area Est $253k · 14% under $400/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover low-maintenance living in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with a 1-car garage in the desirable Cypress Trace community of St. Johns County. Offering nearly 1,300 square feet of functional living space, this home features an open-concept first floor with a spacious kitchen and living area, convenient half bath, and a private rear patio overlooking a peaceful preserve with a privacy partition--perfect for relaxing outdoors. Upstairs, both bedrooms include private en-suite bathrooms, providing comfort and convenience. Zoned for top-rated St.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tennis courts
• Pool

Tags

• PRIVATE REAR PATIO
• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in St Johns — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Durbin Creek Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #43 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 959 students, 13% FRL); Fruit Cove Middle School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #28 of 571 statewide, top 5%, 1,223 students, 6% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 938 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,662 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,437
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
843 Black Cherry Dr S	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,268 (0%)	5mo	$194,000	$153	93
872 Black Cherry Dr S	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,268 (0%)	4mo	$196,000	$155	92
827 Black Cherry Dr S	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,468 (+16%)	4mo	$221,500	$151	64
6169 Bartram Village Dr	1.20mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,368 (+8%)	4mo	$278,000	$203	44
6151 Bartram Village Dr	1.22mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,368 (+8%)	5mo	$233,400	$171	42
6127 Bartram Village Dr	1.25mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,368 (+8%)	9mo	$258,900	$189	39
5980 Bartram Village Dr	1.45mi	2/2.5	1,520 (+20%)	4mo	$250,000	$164	37
335 Boulder Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,503 (+18%)	5mo	$412,000	$274	36
78 Stonecrest Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+18%)	7mo	$390,000	$260	34
5926 Bartram Village Dr #5926	1.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (+20%)	3mo	$270,000	$178	32
6155 Bartram Village Dr	1.22mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,558 (+23%)	5mo	$274,000	$176	28
37 Carlson Ct	1.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,490 (+18%)	10mo	$410,000	$275	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-61,932
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-102,378
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32259

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 938
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $171,662

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-251	+0% $-327	+5% $-403	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-406	+0% $-327	+5% $-248	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-271	base $-327	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
452 Walnut Dr St Johns, FL	3.0	2.5	1492	$2,050	$1.37	27d	1	0.15mi
125 Grand Cypress Dr St Johns, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1022	$1,842	$1.80	17d	44	0.26mi
130 N Big Cypress Dr St Johns, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,965	$1.80	15d	35	0.28mi
50 Lago Mar Way Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	941	$2,012	$2.14	16d	19	0.39mi
14951 Walden Springs Way Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$1,830	$1.63	38d	21	0.44mi
14951 Walden Springs Way Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$1,686	$1.42	27d	1	0.44mi
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	70d	1	1.09mi
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	72d	1	1.09mi
94 Carlson Ct Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,448	$1.69	41d	1	1.11mi
6131 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1368	$1,900	$1.39	65d	1	1.23mi
6131 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	27d	1	1.23mi
6119 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1558	$2,200	$1.41	35d	1	1.25mi
6070 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,100	$1.18	41d	1	1.32mi
5924 Bartram Village Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1520	$1,999	$1.32	53d	1	1.38mi
11849 Palm Bay Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,059	$1.90	15d	19	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has associationAssociation fee $300 monthlyAdditional association fee $100 monthlyNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage1-car garage
• Utilities: Sewer connectedWater connectedCable available
• Home design: Condominium2 storiesProperty is attachedResidential use
• Exterior features: No private poolSewer connectedWater connectedCable available

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, electric range, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $400/mo · $4,800/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $219,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $219,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $219,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $219,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $219,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $219,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $219,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $219,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $219,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $219,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $219,000 Active 52 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $219,000 Active 51 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 47 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    price $219,000 Active 46 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 45 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,340–$19,020 screening

This well-maintained townhome in a desirable community offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

A Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Durbin Creek Elementary School A+ FL #43/2,144 Nat'l #526/41,679 Middle Fruit Cove Middle School A FL #28/571 Nat'l #399/14,009 High Creekside High School A- FL #27/667 Nat'l #1,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St Johns

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 303,941 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 75,016
• Household income: $150,736
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.54%
• Current HPI: 261.2552
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has associationAssociation fee $300 monthlyAdditional association fee $100 monthlyNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage1-car garage
• Utilities: Sewer connectedWater connectedCable available
• Home design: Condominium2 storiesProperty is attachedResidential use
• Exterior features: No private poolSewer connectedWater connectedCable available

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, electric range, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-06 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $225,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 realMLS