1205 Niblick Dr · Rocky Mount, NC 27804

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 0.31 ac lot Est $211k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offers solid potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking for value and space. Owned and cared for by the same homeowner for more than 30 years, the property has been well maintained over time and offers a practical one-story layout with multiple living spaces. Inside, you'll find both a spacious living room and a separate sitting room, providing flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The home also features an eat-in kitchen, separate dining room, and three comfortably sized bedrooms. Outside, enjoy a large . 31-acre lot with a back deck and storage shed for additional functionality. Built in 1977, this h

Key facts

• One story layout
• Separate dining room
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• ONE STORY LAYOUT
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LARGE LOT
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding/frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.5% in Rocky Mount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#134 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: M B Hubbard Elementary (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,233 of 1,410 statewide, top 88%, 407 students, 85% FRL); Red Oak Middle (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 804 students, 64% FRL); Northern Nash High (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #402 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 1,059 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $125k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1100 Cardinals Knob	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+7%)	11mo	$205,000	$123	68
1437 Rock Creek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+1%)	16mo	$219,500	$139	68
1500 Treetop Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,576 (+1%)	14mo	$200,000	$127	61
120 Foxhall Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+8%)	11mo	$155,000	$92	59
304 Foxhall Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,463 (-6%)	11mo	$167,500	$114	55
1428 Foxhall Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,700 (+9%)	5mo	$230,000	$135	54
1501 Homestead Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	9mo	$145,000	$104	52
627 Greyson Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-7%)	7mo	$140,000	$96	50
109 Ambergate Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	11mo	$245,999	$178	39
117 Ambergate Ct	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,369 (-12%)	11mo	$247,999	$181	35
117 Ambergate Ct	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,369 (-12%)	11mo	$247,999	$181	35
109 Ambergate Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-12%)	11mo	$245,999	$178	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,047
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,062
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27804

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $383	+0% $340	+5% $297	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $280	+0% $340	+5% $400	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $372	base $340	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $125,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$533
• After-tax cash flow: $3,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rocky Mount

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #7692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Mount, NC
• County: Nash County · 50,768 people
• City population: 70,300
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,713
• Household income: $61,359
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 710.0

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.83%
• Current HPI: 183.0082
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+114.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $125,000 Hive MLS
• 1991-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $58,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $231 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.