615 Elm St · Seguin, TX 78155-4827

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1968 8,276 sqft lot $182/sqft · 9% below area Est $181k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOOKING UPDATED HOME ON A BIG WIDE AND DEEP LOT WITH A LARGE CARPORT FOR PARKING AND BIG STORAGE BUILDING*THE BACK YARD IS FENCED ON ALL SIDES. YARD HAS SEVERAL LARGE NUT TREES. LARGE PATIO FOR OUTSIDE FAMILY GET TOGETHERS. THE BIG BATHROOM HAS BEEN UPDATED. THE HOME COMES WITH INSIDE UTILITY ROOM WITH WASHER AND DRYER. KITHCHEN HAS REFRIGERATOR AND STOVE * CEILING FANS IN BOTH BEDROOMS AND THE LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM.

Key facts

• Large carport
• Updated home
• Big storage building

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• BIG WIDE AND DEEP LOT
• LARGE CARPORT
• BIG STORAGE BUILDING
• BACK YARD FENCED
• SEVERAL LARGE NUT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $165k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,961 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,577
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -8.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 E Elm St	0.17mi	2/1.0	908 (+0%)	2mo	$125,000	$138	90
717 N Heideke St	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	899 (-1%)	6mo	$186,000	$207	75
1033 N Milam St	0.40mi	2/1.0	910 (+0%)	11mo	$179,990	$198	71
810 Elm	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,001 (+10%)	4mo	$165,000	$165	70
406 Bismark St	0.33mi	2/1.0	924 (+2%)	18mo	$159,900	$173	66
510 N Camp St	0.42mi	2/1.0	884 (-2%)	17mo	$179,000	$202	62
403 Bauer St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,039 (+15%)	4mo	$208,750	$201	56
1029 N Milam St	0.39mi	2/1.0	832 (-8%)	16mo	$174,000	$209	55
725 E Pine St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+13%)	2mo	$169,000	$166	50
161 Antelope Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	960 (+6%)	13mo	$319,000	$332	49
714 S Milam St	0.70mi	2/1.0	792 (-13%)	2mo	$148,900	$188	44
804 N Guadalupe St	0.68mi	2/1.0	840 (-7%)	19mo	$150,000	$179	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,386
• Equity at exit: $74,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $50,289
• Equity at exit: $114,337

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155-4827

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,046/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $138,686

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-102	+0% $-149	+5% $-196	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-197	+0% $-149	+5% $-101	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-107	base $-149	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 N Milam St Seguin, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	45d	1	0.26mi
809 Leissner St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,175	$1.15	25d	1	0.27mi
968 E Cedar St Unit 1 Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	45d	1	0.55mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	16d	1	0.60mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	25d	1	0.60mi
404 W Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,550	$1.56	45d	1	0.60mi
519 E Pine St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,150	$1.71	4d	1	0.61mi
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	25d	1	0.72mi
714 S River St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,285	$1.37	25d	1	0.73mi
508 Pitts St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	13d	1	0.75mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,225	$1.12	0d	1	0.89mi
1386 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,270	$1.15	45d	1	0.92mi
1400 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,404	$1.35	0d	9	0.93mi
800 N Highway 123 Byp Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$771	$0.91	45d	1	1.01mi
908 Pecan St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	17d	1	1.09mi
906 San Antonio Ave Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	45d	1	1.10mi
1111 N Highway 123 Byp Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	677	$1,550	$2.29	0d	16	1.15mi
1168 Sycamore St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	0d	1	1.16mi
1701 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,414	$1.38	0d	1	1.17mi
607 E Martindale St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	18d	1	1.40mi
745 Harry Miller Pass Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$1,638	$1.54	0d	40	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-01-23
   price $165,000 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   GREAT LOOKING UPDATED HOME ON A BIG WIDE AND DEEP LOT WITH A LARGE CARPORT FOR PARKING AND BIG STORAGE BUILDING*THE BACK YARD IS FENCED ON ALL SIDES. YARD HAS SEVERAL LARGE NUT TREES. LARGE PATIO FOR OUTSIDE FAMILY GET TOGETHERS. THE BIG BATHROOM HAS BEEN UPDATED. THE HOME COMES WITH INSIDE UTILITY ROOM WITH WASHER AND DRYER. KITHCHEN HAS REFRIGERATOR AND STOVE * CEILING FANS IN BOTH BEDROOMS AND THE LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM.

2. 2025-10-15
   listed $179,000 New 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   GREAT LOOKING UPDATED HOME ON A BIG WIDE AND DEEP LOT WITH A LARGE CARPORT FOR PARKING AND BIG STORAGE BUILDING*THE BACK YARD IS FENCED ON ALL SIDES. YARD HAS SEVERAL LARGE NUT TREES. LARGE PATIO FOR OUTSIDE FAMILY GET TOGETHERS. THE BIG BATHROOM HAS BEEN UPDATED. THE HOME COMES WITH INSIDE UTILITY ROOM WITH WASHER AND DRYER. KITHCHEN HAS REFRIGERATOR AND STOVE * CEILING FANS IN BOTH BEDROOMS AND THE LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM.

3. 2022-12-12
   soldstatus
4. 2018-04-06
   soldstatus
5. 2016-04-05
   soldstatus
6. 2016-04-01
   historical 337-char remark

   Show marketing remark (337 chars)

   CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

7. 2016-03-31
   soldstatus Sold 337-char remark

   Show marketing remark (337 chars)

   CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

8. 2016-03-31
   soldstatus $82,500

   Show marketing remark (337 chars)

   CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

9. 2016-02-02
   status Pending 337-char remark

   Show marketing remark (337 chars)

   CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

10. 2016-01-19
    historical Active Option 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

11. 2016-01-18
    status Back on Market 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

12. 2016-01-14
    listed $82,500 New 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

13. 2016-01-14
    historical 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

14. 2016-01-14
    listed $82,500

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    CUTE & CLEAN! 0.1989 ac., w/2 Br., 1 bath home w/vinyl siding & over-hang, central heat/air, range, refrigerator, stacked washer & dryer, fenced back yard, old garage used as storage bldg. To convert to garage again - must go by City Code. 24-hour Notice to show! Must give Tenant 30 days Notice After Total Loan Approval.

15. 2008-01-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,046 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 47.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,046
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $165,000 LERA
• 2025-10-15 Listed $179,000 LERA
• 2022-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2016-03-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2016-03-31 Sold (MLS) $82,500 CTXMLS
• 2016-02-02 Pending — LERA
• 2016-01-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2016-01-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2016-01-14 Listed $82,500 LERA
• 2016-01-14 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2016-01-14 Listed $82,500 CTXMLS
• 2008-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,046 · -23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.