409 Lee St · Smithville, TX 78957

$69,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 1958 6,708 sqft lot $54/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unparalleled redevelopment opportunity near historic downtown Smithville, TX! This property, featuring an existing 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom structure, is ideal for the investor or builder seeking a project requiring either a complete, total remodel or a tear-down for new construction (sold strictly as-is). The value is squarely in the prime, highly-desirable location, which offers walkable proximity to Smithville's charming and actively revitalizing downtown square, bustling with local shops, dining, and the unique cultural appeal of a "Film Friendly" Central Texas town. Don't miss this rare chance to build new equity and contribute to the growth of this burgeoning community.

Key facts

• Historic downtown
• Walkable proximity
• Prime location

Tags

• REDEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN
• PRIME LOCATION
• WALKABLE PROXIMITY
• LOCAL SHOPS
• DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.46%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,205
• List price: $69,995
• Delta: -73.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Lee St	0.01mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,366 (+5%)	14mo	$285,000	$209	71
304 Washington St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-8%)	4mo	$165,000	$138	70
300 Walker St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	6mo	$180,000	$129	70
406 San Jacinto St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-3%)	5mo	$259,000	$206	69
406 Ross St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+1%)	7mo	$289,999	$221	66
216 Washington St	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,208 (-7%)	22mo	$250,000	$207	54
206 Prima St	0.26mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,411 (+8%)	20mo	$179,000	$127	52
201 Short St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-4%)	20mo	$329,500	$263	48
321 String Prairie Way Lot 10	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (+7%)	21mo	$314,700	$226	44
502 Gresham St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+4%)	23mo	$355,000	$263	40
102 East St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,142 (-12%)	22mo	$279,900	$245	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $53,697
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $130,699
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,811/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $1,020

Break-even live

Break-even rent $693

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,060	-5% $1,040	+0% $1,020	+5% $1,000	+10% $980
Rent	-10% $863	-5% $942	+0% $1,020	+5% $1,098	+10% $1,177
Rate	-1.0pp $1,055	-0.5pp $1,038	base $1,020	+0.5pp $1,002	+1.0pp $984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Taylor St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	0.45mi
505 Colorado St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,990	$1.79	9d	1	0.95mi
109 Les Ln Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,600	$1.43	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,995 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,995 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,995 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,995 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,995 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,995 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,995 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,995 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,995 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,995 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,995 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,995 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    soldstatus
16. 2025-10-07
    listed $69,995 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Unparalleled redevelopment opportunity near historic downtown Smithville, TX! This property, featuring an existing 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom structure, is ideal for the investor or builder seeking a project requiring either a complete, total remodel or a tear-down for new construction (sold strictly as-is). The value is squarely in the prime, highly-desirable location, which offers walkable proximity to Smithville's charming and actively revitalizing downtown square, bustling with local shops, dining, and the unique cultural appeal of a "Film Friendly" Central Texas town. Don't miss this rare chance to build new equity and contribute to the growth of this burgeoning community.

17. 2025-02-11
    listed Active
18. 2024-02-19
    status Active
19. 2023-12-29
    historical
20. 2023-11-16
    status Pending
21. 2023-10-13
    status Back on Market
22. 2023-09-12
    historical Active Option
23. 2023-08-30
    listed Active
24. 2023-06-19
    price
25. 2023-06-02
    soldstatus
26. 2023-05-29
    listed $89,000 New
27. 2023-05-29
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,811
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $11,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,851
• After-tax cash flow: $9,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Listed $69,995 Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-19 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-11-16 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-09-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2023-08-30 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-29 Listed $89,000 LERA
• 2023-05-29 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,811 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.