11 W Commerce St · Shamokin, PA 17872

$49,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · Other · 124 Days on market

Built 1920 1,326 sqft lot $38/sqft · 6% above area Est $47k · 6% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11 W Commerce Street, a spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5 bath home full of potential! Featuring a large living area, this property offers plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. This home is being sold as-is and is ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, you can transform this property into the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity. Ideally located within walking distance to downtown restaurants and shops, you’ll love the convenience and charm of this location. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to unlock this home’s potential, message me today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, commute F, employment F.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $950 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.30%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,912
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 6.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $28,141
• Equity at exit: $19,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $69,160
• Equity at exit: $27,771

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17872

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $405	+0% $390	+5% $376	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $347	+0% $390	+5% $434	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $403	base $390	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 S Market St Fl Rear Shamokin, PA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	45d	1	0.31mi
609 E Commerce St Shamokin, PA	4.0	1.5	1668	$1,500	$0.90	45d	1	0.42mi
2 S Vine St Shamokin, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$975	$0.67	45d	1	0.55mi
804 W Mulberry St Coal Township, PA	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,075	$0.80	45d	1	0.66mi
1309 W Spruce St Coal Township, PA	3.0	1.0	1275	$825	$0.65	45d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $54,900 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to 11 W Commerce Street, a spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5 bath home full of potential! Featuring a large living area, this property offers plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. This home is being sold as-is and is ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, you can transform this property into the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity. Ideally located within walking distance to downtown restaurants and shops, you’ll love the convenience and charm of this location. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to unlock this home’s potential, message me today to schedule your showing!

17. 2026-03-02
    price $59,900 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to 11 W Commerce Street, a spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5 bath home full of potential! Featuring a large living area, this property offers plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. This home is being sold as-is and is ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, you can transform this property into the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity. Ideally located within walking distance to downtown restaurants and shops, you’ll love the convenience and charm of this location. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to unlock this home’s potential, message me today to schedule your showing!

18. 2026-02-16
    listed $63,900 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to 11 W Commerce Street, a spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5 bath home full of potential! Featuring a large living area, this property offers plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. This home is being sold as-is and is ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, you can transform this property into the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity. Ideally located within walking distance to downtown restaurants and shops, you’ll love the convenience and charm of this location. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to unlock this home’s potential, message me today to schedule your showing!

19. 2026-02-14
    historical $63,900 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to 11 W Commerce Street, a spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5 bath home full of potential! Featuring a large living area, this property offers plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. This home is being sold as-is and is ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, you can transform this property into the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity. Ideally located within walking distance to downtown restaurants and shops, you’ll love the convenience and charm of this location. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to unlock this home’s potential, message me today to schedule your showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,053
• − Management: −$1,053
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $3,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shamokin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221240
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,380
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7709
• State rank: #450 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shamokin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #9448

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shamokin, PA
• City population: 9,808
• Population (ZIP): 8,950

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 6% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Current HPI: 124.6288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $63,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-14 Coming Soon $63,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,658 · +61.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.