Justin Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$333,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,831 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

We would love to welcome you to our Justin/E40J floor plan, located in the new Sunterra community! This is a single-story house that includes four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This house spans 1,831 square feet and will be a lovely home for you and your family! Upon entering this house, the long foyer invites you to further experience the charm of this home. You may notice the two secondary bedrooms as you continue through the house. These two bedrooms with their carpet flooring give the rooms a feeling of comfort, and they each have access to the secondary bathroom, which lies in between the two bedrooms. The secondary bathroom has vinyl flooring, pretty cabinets, a tile tub, and a shelf near the entrance for towels. Continuing through the home, you will find another secondary bedroom along with a utility room. This secondary bedroom has carpet flooring and is as spacious and pleasant as the other bedrooms of the house. The utility room has vinyl floors and space for a washer and dryer. Next is the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, which has vinyl flooring and large windows, making this house perfect for hosting dinners or celebrations. The kitchen with its stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, tall pantry, and island will excite the hopes of any chef. The primary bedroom can be accessed through the family room. This bedroom has carpet flooring and two large windows opening to the backya

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 155 days

🏗️ New construction. The $333,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $334k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,701 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,512
• List price: $333,990
• Delta: 0.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27126 Peaceful Cove Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (+2%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	85
1516 Twilight Green Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+3%)	4mo	$289,000	$154	64
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+2%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	59
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+0%)	1mo	$301,990	$165	59
4736 Peony Green Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (+2%)	2mo	$299,990	$161	56
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,056 (+12%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	49
5802 Linda Cove Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-4%)	3mo	$369,990	$212	49
5631 Pearl Vista Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,025 (+11%)	3mo	$339,504	$168	48
5017 Marcasca Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-8%)	2mo	$269,990	$160	47
5611 Birchwood Glen Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-12%)	3mo	$331,202	$206	45
5811 Havana Mist Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+14%)	4mo	$394,990	$190	38
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,102 (+15%)	0mo	$331,990	$158	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-63,264
• Equity at exit: $49,430

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-88,987
• Equity at exit: $28,663

Cash invested: $92,823 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,738
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,973/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,900

Max offer price $328,883

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,878
• Closing costs: $9,945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	0.32mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.51mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	0.54mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.63mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.75mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.81mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	1.06mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	1.17mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	13d	1	1.22mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.24mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.24mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.24mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.24mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.24mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.25mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.27mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	1.28mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.31mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.33mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	13d	1	1.34mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.35mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	1.36mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	1.42mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.42mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	44d	1	1.43mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,990 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,990 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $333,990 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $333,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $333,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $333,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $333,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $333,990 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,990 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-01-13
    listed $333,990 Active 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    We would love to welcome you to our Justin/E40J floor plan, located in the new Sunterra community! This is a single-story house that includes four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This house spans 1,831 square feet and will be a lovely home for you and your family! Upon entering this house, the long foyer invites you to further experience the charm of this home. You may notice the two secondary bedrooms as you continue through the house. These two bedrooms with their carpet flooring give the rooms a feeling of comfort, and they each have access to the secondary bathroom, which lies in between the two bedrooms. The secondary bathroom has vinyl flooring, pretty cabinets, a tile tub, and a shelf near the entrance for towels. Continuing through the home, you will find another secondary bedroom along with a utility room. This secondary bedroom has carpet flooring and is as spacious and pleasant as the other bedrooms of the house. The utility room has vinyl floors and space for a washer and dryer. Next is the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, which has vinyl flooring and large windows, making this house perfect for hosting dinners or celebrations. The kitchen with its stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, tall pantry, and island will excite the hopes of any chef. The primary bedroom can be accessed through the family room. This bedroom has carpet flooring and two large windows opening to the backya

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,570
• − Property taxes: −$4,973
• − Insurance: −$1,658
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − Depreciation: −$9,644
• Taxable loss: −$5,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $1,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in the Sunterra community is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring in bedrooms — Improves durability and adds value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring in bedrooms — Improves durability and adds value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $333,990 Zillow