512 Azalea Ave · Orange, TX 77639

$83,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 946 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1955 $88/sqft · 19% below area Est $103k · 19% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you an investor Looking for your next home? This 3 bedroom 1 bath, 1 car garage might be just the right fit. This home comes tenant occupancy. Investor does have other available as a package deal as well.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 141 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($574 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.61%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,089
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -19.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 Bowling Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+12%)	4mo	$90,000	$85	66
3656 Hemlock St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+9%)	2mo	$69,900	$68	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $33,002
• Equity at exit: $37,320

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $85,397
• Equity at exit: $57,515

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77639

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	21d	1	0.23mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	44d	1	0.24mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 203 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,084	$1.08	14d	1	0.46mi
3714 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	14d	1	0.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 404 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,254	$1.25	44d	1	0.51mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 107 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	44d	1	0.51mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Apt 105 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	21d	1	0.51mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 408 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,059	$1.06	44d	1	0.51mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	13d	12	0.64mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	14d	1	0.87mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	44d	1	1.02mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	13d	7	1.08mi
1010 Highway 87 S Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,425	$1.62	14d	13	1.24mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	13d	27	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $83,000 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $83,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Are you an investor Looking for your next home? This 3 bedroom 1 bath, 1 car garage might be just the right fit. This home comes tenant occupancy. Investor does have other available as a package deal as well.

17. 2026-02-19
    price $84,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Are you an investor Looking for your next home? This 3 bedroom 1 bath, 1 car garage might be just the right fit. This home comes tenant occupancy. Investor does have other available as a package deal as well.

18. 2026-01-28
    price $87,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Are you an investor Looking for your next home? This 3 bedroom 1 bath, 1 car garage might be just the right fit. This home comes tenant occupancy. Investor does have other available as a package deal as well.

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $90,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Are you an investor Looking for your next home? This 3 bedroom 1 bath, 1 car garage might be just the right fit. This home comes tenant occupancy. Investor does have other available as a package deal as well.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $3,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$776
• After-tax cash flow: $3,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $83,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $84,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $87,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-28 Listed $90,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.