14175 Granger Pointe Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$225,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

• Zoned to conroe isd
• Large pantry
• Home office

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE PANTRY
• ZONED TO CONROE ISD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: VanMor Properties Inc; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Additional parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Approximately 1,557 living area; Located in a subdivision
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Built by Meritage Homes
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Granite counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approximately 14x13); Bedroom on first floor (approximately 12x10); Bedroom on first floor (approximately 11x10); Bedroom on first floor (approximately 10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Attic fan; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $225,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,865.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $226k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,210 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,865
• List price: $225,990
• Delta: -6.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,557 (0%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	97
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,557 (0%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	96
14150 Granger Pointe	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	0mo	$213,790	$148	80
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	79
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	1mo	$214,590	$150	78
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	78
14171 Granger Pointe Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	0mo	$239,540	$170	78
16269 Parish Pointe Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (+8%)	0mo	$267,240	$158	67
16261 Parish Pointe Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (+8%)	0mo	$266,240	$158	66
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-3%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	60
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+9%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	52
15557 Granger Green Way	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+12%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-27,345
• Equity at exit: $36,212

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,110
• Equity at exit: $20,999

Cash invested: $68,002 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $242,865

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $260	+0% $176	+5% $92	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $81	+0% $176	+5% $271	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $238	base $176	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,716
• Closing costs: $7,286
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,990 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $225,990 Active 42 DOM

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet.

12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $224,990 708-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    price $223,990 708-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    price $223,990 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet.

18. 2026-05-01
    listed $245,990 Active 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet.

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $245,990 Active 708-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,604
• − Property taxes: −$3,643
• − Insurance: −$1,214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,065
• Taxable loss: −$1,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $2,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new, energy-efficient home is move-in ready with a fresh interior and exterior. It offers a spacious kitchen, four bedrooms, and a well-maintained living space. Potential buyers will appreciate the energy-efficient features and the charming town feel of Granger Pointe.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more potential buyers.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase both resale and rental value by offering convenience and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase both resale and rental value by offering convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Listed $245,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $245,990 HARMLS