103 N Circle Dr · Ellenwood, GA 30294

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 262 Days on market

Built 2002 Fair condition $135/sqft · 24% below area Est $251k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled amongst mature, natural landscaping, you'll be enamored by the charm and curb appeal upon arrival at this Ellenwood home! Step inside into the well-appointed living room, situated at the front of the home. Through the home's dining room you'll find the kitchen, which boasts chic black appliances, hard surface countertops, ample storage and access to the laundry room. Rounding out this ranch style floorplan is the primary suite and two secondary bedrooms. Come and see for yourself the possibilities that this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Natural landscaping
• Black appliances
• Kitchen

Tags

• NATURAL LANDSCAPING
• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• HARD SURFACE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Ellenwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Austin Road Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 386 students, 65% FRL); Austin Road Middle School (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Woodland High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #238 of 424 statewide, top 57%, 1,334 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $190k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,000
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -24.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Court N	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+5%)	6mo	$250,000	$169	68
120 Wilhelmina Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	0mo	$120,000	$83	60
117 N Circle Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-13%)	21mo	$226,900	$186	54
322 Acaro Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+6%)	12mo	$218,600	$146	45
340 Boundary Tree Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,680 (+19%)	1mo	$252,000	$150	43
177 Hill Ln	1.11mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+2%)	24mo	$222,000	$155	42
5125 Flakes Mill Rd	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+20%)	6mo	$179,250	$106	35
326 Acaro Ct	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+11%)	16mo	$255,000	$163	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,628
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $26,621
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,000 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 17 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,596/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,740

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $317	+0% $263	+5% $210	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $181	+0% $263	+5% $345	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $312	base $263	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
355 Victoria Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,780	$1.15	83d	1	1.06mi
85 Wilhelmina Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,900	$3.06	10d	1	1.07mi
85 Wilhelmina Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,900	$3.06	184d	1	1.07mi
21 Juliana Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,780	$1.42	10d	1	1.10mi
3996 Brookstone Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	1.11mi
4910 Brookstone Pkwy Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1728	$1,995	$1.15	142d	1	1.12mi
17 Juliana Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,765	$1.08	109d	1	1.14mi
60 Juliana Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,731	$1.15	28d	1	1.17mi
5969 Hearn Rd Unit 1591568P Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1528	$6,890	$4.51	56d	1	1.22mi
30 Fairfield Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,825	$1.29	69d	1	1.38mi
5266 River Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1537	$1,850	$1.20	184d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $189,900 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $189,900 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $189,900 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $189,900 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $189,900 Active 247 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $189,900 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 245 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 244 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $189,900 Active 243 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $189,900 Active 242 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 241 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 240 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 239 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 238 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 237 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 236 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $189,900 Active 235 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $189,900 Active 234 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 233 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 232 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 231 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 230 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 229 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 228 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 227 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 226 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 225 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 224 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 223 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 222 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 221 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 220 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $189,900 Active 219 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    statusdays on market $189,900 Active 218 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $189,900 Price Change 217 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    pricestatusdays on market $189,900 Price Change 216 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $199,900 Active 214 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $199,900 Active 213 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $199,900 Active 212 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $199,900 Active 211 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,596 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,596 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,596
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $3,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 50/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $35,250–$63,450 screening

This home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and siding, as well as landscaping and fencing. However, with these updates, it has the potential to become a move-in-ready property with increased resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring carpet

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible moss and potential damage.
• Major exterior siding — The siding shows signs of wear and tear, with some areas appearing loose or damaged.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping and fencing appear to be in poor condition, with overgrown vegetation and a lack of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale repair siding — A new siding will improve the home's exterior appearance and increase its value, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both landscape and fence — A well-maintained landscape and fence will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value by making it more attractive to potential tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Austin Road Elementary School F GA #810/1,228 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Austin Road Middle School F GA #291/470 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Woodland High School F GA #238/424 Nat'l #14,291/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellenwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 249,041 people
• City population: 41,983
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+95.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $219,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $235,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $242,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2002-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $102,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,596 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.