311 Nesbitt Park Ave · Four Corners, FL 33897

$199,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1987 4,996 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A really pretty 2/2 home. Kitchen cupboards, counter tops, dishwasher, sink & disposal - all new 4 years ago. Floors are carpet, vinyl & ceramic. The roof is only 1.5 years old & AC was replaced 4 years ago. It is neat, clean & well landscaped. Apleasure to move into this one. Located in a golf course community with two clubhouses, two pools, shuffleboard and tennis courts plus activities for owners and their guests. JUST REDUCED!

Key facts

• 2 clubhouses
• Pickleball courts
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• 2 POOLS
• 2 CLUBHOUSES
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $70; Total annual fees $840
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly HOA $70); Quarterly association fee ($210); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities, golf, golf course, street lights, fence restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; East-facing; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Level, paved lot; In-county location; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets; Skylights; Double-pane windows; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $165 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $200k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,783 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,346
• Equity at exit: $51,992

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,885
• Equity at exit: $57,882

Cash invested: $55,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $199,750

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,938
• Closing costs: $5,992
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
232 Nesbitt Park Ave Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,325	$1.53	23d	1	0.06mi
130 Orlando Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,097	$2.05	14d	21	0.21mi
218 Langford Park Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,100	$1.42	23d	1	0.33mi
1000 Western Breeze CIR Unit 3-410 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,360	$1.99	3d	1	0.35mi
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	0.40mi
1000 Western Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,448	$1.81	14d	83	0.40mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	14d	1	0.43mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	2d	1	0.47mi
1623 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,950	$1.34	3d	1	0.49mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	23d	1	0.49mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	0.50mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	0.50mi
223 Washington Palm Loop Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	745	$1,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.58mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	23d	1	0.59mi
601 Washington Palm Loop Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	23d	1	0.60mi
1000 Ketner St Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,746	$1.65	3d	22	0.70mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	23d	1	0.80mi
130 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,890	$2.09	1d	19	0.86mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,970	$1.67	3d	15	0.99mi
50989 Highway 27 #108 Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	21d	1	0.99mi
145 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1029	$1,850	$1.80	2d	22	1.00mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	1.05mi
17345 Cagan Crossings Blvd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,195	$1.73	12d	1	1.09mi
17177 Cagan Crossings Blvd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,500	$1.69	23d	1	1.23mi
218 Haversham Way Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	785	$600	$0.76	23d	1	1.25mi
16407 Bird of Paradise Ave Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,300	$1.55	20d	1	1.37mi
16423 Happy Eagle Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,250	$1.52	4d	1	1.40mi
16419 Happy Eagle Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	1.40mi
16436 Happy Eagle Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	1.41mi
16368 Happy Eagle Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,190	$1.47	23d	1	1.43mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	23d	1	1.44mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	23d	1	1.44mi
16390 Bird of Paradise Ave Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1477	$2,200	$1.49	23d	1	1.44mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,822	$1.75	3d	35	1.45mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	23d	1	1.47mi
16520 Windsor Cay Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1128	$2,286	$2.03	1d	17	1.49mi
16350 Bird of Paradise Ave Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,150	$1.45	23d	1	1.49mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	1.49mi
16346 Bird of Paradise Ave Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,200	$1.48	10d	1	1.49mi
16305 Bird of Paradise Ave Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,750 Active
3. 2011-03-21
   soldstatus $68,000
4. 2011-03-04
   soldstatus $68,000 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   A really pretty 2/2 home. Kitchen cupboards, counter tops, dishwasher, sink & disposal - all new 4 years ago. Floors are carpet, vinyl & ceramic. The roof is only 1.5 years old & AC was replaced 4 years ago. It is neat, clean & well landscaped. Apleasure to move into this one. Located in a golf course community with two clubhouses, two pools, shuffleboard and tennis courts plus activities for owners and their guests. JUST REDUCED!

5. 2009-08-11
   listed $85,500 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   A really pretty 2/2 home. Kitchen cupboards, counter tops, dishwasher, sink & disposal - all new 4 years ago. Floors are carpet, vinyl & ceramic. The roof is only 1.5 years old & AC was replaced 4 years ago. It is neat, clean & well landscaped. Apleasure to move into this one. Located in a golf course community with two clubhouses, two pools, shuffleboard and tennis courts plus activities for owners and their guests. JUST REDUCED!

6. 1996-12-16
   soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,189
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$5,811
• Taxable loss: −$1,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$311
• After-tax cash flow: $2,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1448.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-11 Listed $85,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.