28396 Turkey Branch Dr · Daphne, AL 36526

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 2011 0.28 ac lot $180/sqft · 7% below area Est $301k · 7% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

(Description provided by homeowner) Presenting a Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home in the Picturesque Bay Branch Villas Neighborhood in Daphne with Nearby Shopping. The Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom and Dining Area have Spectacular Views of Foliage along Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a Breath-Taking View of the Back Porch and Nicely Landscaped Rear-Sloping Yard that Transitions to Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a High Ceiling and like the Master Bedroom, has Recessed Lights and a Ceiling Fan. Beautiful Continuous Hardwood Flooring is throughout the Foyer, Living Room and Master Bedroom. The Open Kitchen comes with Stainless Steel Appliances and a Spacious Pantry. The Master Bathroom has a Beautiful Garden Tub, Separate Shower and Tile-Like Flooring that leads to a Spacious Walk-In Closet. The Non-Master Bedrooms are Spacious with Large Windows, Natural Light and Ceiling Fans. One of these Two Bedrooms has a High Ceiling while the Other has a Spacious Closet. This Well-Kept, Move-In Ready Home has Clean Walls Throughout, a Foyer Closet and Two Linen Closets Adjacent to the Bedrooms. The Spacious Laundry Room Leads to the Garage and May Convey With or Without Washer and Dryer. The Attached Two-Car Garage has a Quiet New Garage Door Opener and a Sturdy, Pull-Down Ladder Leading to the Attic which has a Light Switch and Extra Storage Space. This Home has an Existing Security System, Roof Gutters and a New Architectural Roof Installed During 2025. Since the Initial Construction of this Home, a Termite Bond has Remained Continuous and Active. The Termite Bond is Transferable, Some Furniture is Negotiable, and the Homeowner’s Insurance Policy may or may not be Transferable. We Recommend Scheduling a Personal Viewing at your Earliest Convenience to Fully Appreciate the Quality and Care Evident Throughout this Daphne Home. Buyer May Verify the Condition, Information and Description of this Home via Visual and/or Professional Inspections. Buyer to v

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Open living room
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WOOD FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Daphne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $279k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,366 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,143
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -7.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28178 Turkey Branch Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+1%)	9mo	$292,000	$187	81
28138 Turkey Branch Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+2%)	10mo	$305,000	$194	76
28531 Shadow Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+5%)	10mo	$356,000	$219	76
11116 Sturbridge Loop	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+2%)	9mo	$272,500	$173	72
103 Hickory Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-1%)	11mo	$245,000	$160	62
27926 Turkey Branch Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+8%)	6mo	$255,000	$153	61
109 Shiloh Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-4%)	5mo	$249,000	$168	61
191 Robbins Blvd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-8%)	3mo	$269,000	$190	53
28165 Turkey Branch Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (+14%)	11mo	$314,000	$177	50
160 Robbins Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+9%)	12mo	$295,000	$175	48
118 Richmond Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,648 (+7%)	8mo	$263,000	$160	47
142 Richmond Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	10mo	$245,000	$175	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,699
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,603
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36526

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $880/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,114

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $229	+0% $150	+5% $71	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $59	+0% $150	+5% $241	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $221	base $150	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27940 Tolbert Ln E Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,450	$1.75	22d	1	0.60mi
28003 State Highway 181 Daphne, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,755	$2.11	14d	26	1.26mi
10391 Emmanuel St Daphne, AL	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,795	$1.39	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    price $279,000 2006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2006 chars)

    (Description provided by homeowner) Presenting a Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home in the Picturesque Bay Branch Villas Neighborhood in Daphne with Nearby Shopping. The Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom and Dining Area have Spectacular Views of Foliage along Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a Breath-Taking View of the Back Porch and Nicely Landscaped Rear-Sloping Yard that Transitions to Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a High Ceiling and like the Master Bedroom, has Recessed Lights and a Ceiling Fan. Beautiful Continuous Hardwood Flooring is throughout the Foyer, Living Room and Master Bedroom. The Open Kitchen comes with Stainless Steel Appliances and a Spacious Pantry. The Master Bathroom has a Beautiful Garden Tub, Separate Shower and Tile-Like Flooring that leads to a Spacious Walk-In Closet. The Non-Master Bedrooms are Spacious with Large Windows, Natural Light and Ceiling Fans. One of these Two Bedrooms has a High Ceiling while the Other has a Spacious Closet. This Well-Kept, Move-In Ready Home has Clean Walls Throughout, a Foyer Closet and Two Linen Closets Adjacent to the Bedrooms. The Spacious Laundry Room Leads to the Garage and May Convey With or Without Washer and Dryer. The Attached Two-Car Garage has a Quiet New Garage Door Opener and a Sturdy, Pull-Down Ladder Leading to the Attic which has a Light Switch and Extra Storage Space. This Home has an Existing Security System, Roof Gutters and a New Architectural Roof Installed During 2025. Since the Initial Construction of this Home, a Termite Bond has Remained Continuous and Active. The Termite Bond is Transferable, Some Furniture is Negotiable, and the Homeowner’s Insurance Policy may or may not be Transferable. We Recommend Scheduling a Personal Viewing at your Earliest Convenience to Fully Appreciate the Quality and Care Evident Throughout this Daphne Home. Buyer May Verify the Condition, Information and Description of this Home via Visual and/or Professional Inspections. Buyer to v

14. 2026-02-05
    price $284,000 2006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2006 chars)

    (Description provided by homeowner) Presenting a Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home in the Picturesque Bay Branch Villas Neighborhood in Daphne with Nearby Shopping. The Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom and Dining Area have Spectacular Views of Foliage along Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a Breath-Taking View of the Back Porch and Nicely Landscaped Rear-Sloping Yard that Transitions to Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a High Ceiling and like the Master Bedroom, has Recessed Lights and a Ceiling Fan. Beautiful Continuous Hardwood Flooring is throughout the Foyer, Living Room and Master Bedroom. The Open Kitchen comes with Stainless Steel Appliances and a Spacious Pantry. The Master Bathroom has a Beautiful Garden Tub, Separate Shower and Tile-Like Flooring that leads to a Spacious Walk-In Closet. The Non-Master Bedrooms are Spacious with Large Windows, Natural Light and Ceiling Fans. One of these Two Bedrooms has a High Ceiling while the Other has a Spacious Closet. This Well-Kept, Move-In Ready Home has Clean Walls Throughout, a Foyer Closet and Two Linen Closets Adjacent to the Bedrooms. The Spacious Laundry Room Leads to the Garage and May Convey With or Without Washer and Dryer. The Attached Two-Car Garage has a Quiet New Garage Door Opener and a Sturdy, Pull-Down Ladder Leading to the Attic which has a Light Switch and Extra Storage Space. This Home has an Existing Security System, Roof Gutters and a New Architectural Roof Installed During 2025. Since the Initial Construction of this Home, a Termite Bond has Remained Continuous and Active. The Termite Bond is Transferable, Some Furniture is Negotiable, and the Homeowner’s Insurance Policy may or may not be Transferable. We Recommend Scheduling a Personal Viewing at your Earliest Convenience to Fully Appreciate the Quality and Care Evident Throughout this Daphne Home. Buyer May Verify the Condition, Information and Description of this Home via Visual and/or Professional Inspections. Buyer to v

15. 2025-11-06
    listed $289,000 Active 2006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2006 chars)

    (Description provided by homeowner) Presenting a Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home in the Picturesque Bay Branch Villas Neighborhood in Daphne with Nearby Shopping. The Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom and Dining Area have Spectacular Views of Foliage along Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a Breath-Taking View of the Back Porch and Nicely Landscaped Rear-Sloping Yard that Transitions to Turkey Branch. The Living Room has a High Ceiling and like the Master Bedroom, has Recessed Lights and a Ceiling Fan. Beautiful Continuous Hardwood Flooring is throughout the Foyer, Living Room and Master Bedroom. The Open Kitchen comes with Stainless Steel Appliances and a Spacious Pantry. The Master Bathroom has a Beautiful Garden Tub, Separate Shower and Tile-Like Flooring that leads to a Spacious Walk-In Closet. The Non-Master Bedrooms are Spacious with Large Windows, Natural Light and Ceiling Fans. One of these Two Bedrooms has a High Ceiling while the Other has a Spacious Closet. This Well-Kept, Move-In Ready Home has Clean Walls Throughout, a Foyer Closet and Two Linen Closets Adjacent to the Bedrooms. The Spacious Laundry Room Leads to the Garage and May Convey With or Without Washer and Dryer. The Attached Two-Car Garage has a Quiet New Garage Door Opener and a Sturdy, Pull-Down Ladder Leading to the Attic which has a Light Switch and Extra Storage Space. This Home has an Existing Security System, Roof Gutters and a New Architectural Roof Installed During 2025. Since the Initial Construction of this Home, a Termite Bond has Remained Continuous and Active. The Termite Bond is Transferable, Some Furniture is Negotiable, and the Homeowner’s Insurance Policy may or may not be Transferable. We Recommend Scheduling a Personal Viewing at your Earliest Convenience to Fully Appreciate the Quality and Care Evident Throughout this Daphne Home. Buyer May Verify the Condition, Information and Description of this Home via Visual and/or Professional Inspections. Buyer to v

16. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus $155,000
17. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $155,000 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Beautiful split floor plan in Bay Branch Villas by Adams Homes, built in 2011! This one owner home features stunning hand scraped hardwoods in living room with trey ceilings & recessed lighting. 13 month home warranty provided. All stainless steel appliances convey. Spacious master suite. Enjoy the covered back porch w/ separate patio! Upgrades include seamless gutters & security system. USDA ok

18. 2014-12-08
    listed $159,900 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Beautiful split floor plan in Bay Branch Villas by Adams Homes, built in 2011! This one owner home features stunning hand scraped hardwoods in living room with trey ceilings & recessed lighting. 13 month home warranty provided. All stainless steel appliances convey. Spacious master suite. Enjoy the covered back porch w/ separate patio! Upgrades include seamless gutters & security system. USDA ok

19. 2011-12-15
    soldstatus $149,867
20. 2011-09-23
    listed $134,510

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$880
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$3,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$721
• After-tax cash flow: $2,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Daphne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #3949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 36,484
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 36,484
• Household income: $88,750
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.47%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+107.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $279,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $284,000 BCAR
• 2025-11-06 Listed $289,000 BCAR
• 2015-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 BCAR
• 2014-12-08 Listed $159,900 BCAR
• 2011-12-15 Sold (MLS) $149,867 BCAR
• 2011-09-23 Listed $134,510 BCAR

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $880 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.