221 Hall St · Clay, KY 42404

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1978 $59/sqft · 24% below area Est $131k · 24% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath brick home offering comfortable one-level living with plenty of space to enjoy! This home features high ceilings and spacious rooms throughout, creating an open and inviting feel. Relax on the covered front porch or enjoy the convenience of the attached carport. A brand new roof installed in 2025 adds peace of mind for years to come.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached carport
• Workshop area

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• NEW ROOF
• DOUBLE LOT
• WORKSHOP AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#348 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 194 students, 65% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,185
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -23.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Hall St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,745 (+2%)	10mo	$130,000	$74	86
309 W Railroad St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,465 (-14%)	22mo	$110,000	$75	52
19 Russell St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,822 (+7%)	6mo	$196,000	$108	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $72,494
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $199,188
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42404

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $755

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $312	+0% $284	+5% $255	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $240	+0% $284	+5% $328	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $309	base $284	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $100,000 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath brick home offering comfortable one-level living with plenty of space to enjoy! This home features high ceilings and spacious rooms throughout, creating an open and inviting feel. Relax on the covered front porch or enjoy the convenience of the attached carport. A brand new roof installed in 2025 adds peace of mind for years to come.

19. 2026-03-25
    price $125,000 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath brick home offering comfortable one-level living with plenty of space to enjoy! This home features high ceilings and spacious rooms throughout, creating an open and inviting feel. Relax on the covered front porch or enjoy the convenience of the attached carport. A brand new roof installed in 2025 adds peace of mind for years to come.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $140,000 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath brick home offering comfortable one-level living with plenty of space to enjoy! This home features high ceilings and spacious rooms throughout, creating an open and inviting feel. Relax on the covered front porch or enjoy the convenience of the attached carport. A brand new roof installed in 2025 adds peace of mind for years to come.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 133.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $2,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #16518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,268

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.08%
• Current HPI: 223.0427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $100,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $125,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $140,000 HABOR

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2016): $368 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.