551 Summit Trail #138 Plan · Granby, CO 80446

$223,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand new 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home is located perfectly across from the community amenity center and backs up to open spaces. There is a sliding glass door off the dining room that leads to a 6x8 deck overlooking the west colorful mountains. The main living space is very spacious and the kitchen features an oversized kitchen island, multiple cabinet space and energy-efficient appliances. The primary bedroom has views of the open spaces and has a beautiful attached bathroom with double sinks, large shower with glass doors, window bench and separate water closet. The other bedroom is on the other end of the home and has a large closet and spare bathroom close to the room with a tub/show

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Attached bathroom
• Sliding glass door

Tags

• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• DECK OVERLOOKING MOUNTAINS
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• DOUBLE SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $228,995

Exterior

• Home design: Condominium/Plan home; Address: 551 Summit Trail #138, Granby, CO 80446
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1404

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan/inventory: Plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $224k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $224k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 424 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,275 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,127
• Equity at exit: $33,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $18,506
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,719 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $223,995

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,999
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,995 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,995 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,995 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,995 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,995 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $223,995 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,995 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,995 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $223,995 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $223,995 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,995 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,995 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,995 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,995 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,995 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable income: $843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $4,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It offers a great location with open spaces and a mountain view, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A cozy outdoor space can attract buyers and renters.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A cozy outdoor space can attract buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B