21146 Caney Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1987 0.39 ac lot $113/sqft · 16% below area Est $213k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This tastefully remodeled home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flexible bonus space ideal for a workshop or additional storage. The fourth bedroom also offers versatility as a flex room or secondary living area. Situated on an expansive 17,000 sq ft cul-de-sac lot with no rear neighbors, this property offers exceptional privacy and peaceful surroundings. The interior features updated finishes, a combination of carpet and laminate flooring, spacious living areas, and a balcony ideal for taking in sunset views. Recent improvements include updated plumbing, a new roof, electrical work, and an HVAC system. A scenic creek behind the home adds to the serene setting of this rare oversized lot. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (21.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,131 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,090
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -15.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20688 Sunset Alps	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,637 (+3%)	17mo	$74,900	$46	55
21500 Vermillion	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-5%)	15mo	$375,000	$248	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-47,982
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-78,398
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,020/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $141,131

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This tastefully remodeled home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flexible bonus space ideal for a workshop or additional storage. The fourth bedroom also offers versatility as a flex room or secondary living area. Situated on an expansive 17,000 sq ft cul-de-sac lot with no rear neighbors, this property offers exceptional privacy and peaceful surroundings. The interior features updated finishes, a combination of carpet and laminate flooring, spacious living areas, and a balcony ideal for taking in sunset views. Recent improvements include updated plumbing, a new roof, electrical work, and an HVAC system. A scenic creek behind the home adds to the serene setting of this rare oversized lot. Schedule your private tour today.

15. 2026-02-03
    historical 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This tastefully remodeled home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flexible bonus space ideal for a workshop or additional storage. The fourth bedroom also offers versatility as a flex room or secondary living area. Situated on an expansive 17,000 sq ft cul-de-sac lot with no rear neighbors, this property offers exceptional privacy and peaceful surroundings. The interior features updated finishes, a combination of carpet and laminate flooring, spacious living areas, and a balcony ideal for taking in sunset views. Recent improvements include updated plumbing, a new roof, electrical work, and an HVAC system. A scenic creek behind the home adds to the serene setting of this rare oversized lot. Schedule your private tour today.

16. 2026-02-03
    listed $180,000 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This tastefully remodeled home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flexible bonus space ideal for a workshop or additional storage. The fourth bedroom also offers versatility as a flex room or secondary living area. Situated on an expansive 17,000 sq ft cul-de-sac lot with no rear neighbors, this property offers exceptional privacy and peaceful surroundings. The interior features updated finishes, a combination of carpet and laminate flooring, spacious living areas, and a balcony ideal for taking in sunset views. Recent improvements include updated plumbing, a new roof, electrical work, and an HVAC system. A scenic creek behind the home adds to the serene setting of this rare oversized lot. Schedule your private tour today.

17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-04
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2025-09-04
    historical
20. 2025-08-28
    price $205,000
21. 2025-07-26
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2025-07-26
    historical
23. 2025-07-04
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus
25. 2023-11-02
    soldstatus
26. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus
27. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus
29. 2021-10-09
    status Pending
30. 2021-07-17
    historical
31. 2021-07-14
    listed $75,000 Active
32. 2021-07-14
    historical
33. 2021-07-13
    status Active
34. 2021-06-25
    status Pending
35. 2021-06-19
    status Option Pending
36. 2021-06-02
    listed $85,000 Active
37. 2021-06-02
    historical
38. 2021-05-29
    price $85,000
39. 2021-04-24
    listed $99,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,020
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$5,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-29 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-24 Listed $99,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,020 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.