4012 Mckinley St · Houston, TX 77051

$310,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,145 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story single-family residences boast high ceilings, hardwood stairs, and picture-framed windows. The gourmet kitchen showcases white quartz countertops, high-efficiency stainless steel appliances, and a gas range. Enjoy a kitchen/dining combo with laminate dark wood flooring throughout. The second floor boasts a private balcony, double quartz vanities in both bathrooms, and a free-standing tub. Each home includes a two-car garage and a private backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to make one of these properties your new home! Located near Texas Medical Center and University of Houston, with easy access to major roadways.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Hardwood stairs
• High ceilings

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD STAIRS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (19 x 15); Second bedroom on second level (14 x 10.4); Third bedroom on second level (14 x 10.1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $310,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,477.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Young El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 385 students, 99% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,357/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,666 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,477
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: 1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4010 Mckinley St	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,145 (0%)	7mo	$281,990	$131	94
4430 Sunflower St	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,076 (-3%)	6mo	$225,000	$108	73
4516 Galesburg St Unit B	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,186 (+2%)	1mo	$289,900	$133	72
4425 Elmwood St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-7%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	69
4427 Elmwood St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-7%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	69
4418 Rosemont St	0.21mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,961 (-9%)	1mo	$250,000	$127	66
9023 Comal St	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,246 (+5%)	2mo	$335,000	$149	58
8813 Edgar St	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-7%)	7mo	$365,000	$183	58
4519 Teton St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,998 (-7%)	7mo	$329,900	$165	55
9003 Comal St	0.65mi	3/3.5	2,012 (-6%)	2mo	$339,900	$169	53
4338 Larkspur St	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,958 (-9%)	4mo	$230,000	$117	50
8034 Fountain St	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,390 (+11%)	2mo	$350,000	$146	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $144,785
• Equity at exit: $266,189

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $452,074
• Equity at exit: $574,047

Cash invested: $82,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,550
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,138/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,765

Max offer price $238,526

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-239	+0% $-322	+5% $-406	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-415	+0% $-322	+5% $-229	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-247	base $-322	+0.5pp $-399	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,869
• Closing costs: $8,864
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	5d	1	0.29mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	0.30mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	0.32mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	0.48mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	0.52mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	0.53mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	0.53mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	45d	1	0.55mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	0.59mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.59mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	16d	1	0.72mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	0.85mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	22d	1	0.88mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	22d	1	0.88mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.93mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	26d	1	0.98mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	45d	1	1.03mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.04mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	1.15mi
7507 Springhill St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	45d	1	1.16mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	45d	1	1.21mi
3615 Dreyfus St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	1.23mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	15d	1	1.31mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1241	$2,041	$1.64	26d	18	1.35mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1356	$2,262	$1.67	0d	48	1.35mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	1.36mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	1.38mi
3088 Holly Hall St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	16d	1	1.38mi
3402 Nathaniel Brown St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1885	$2,025	$1.07	45d	1	1.39mi
2968 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	1.40mi
6809 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1921	$2,600	$1.35	45d	1	1.40mi
2924 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	45d	1	1.45mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	19d	1	1.45mi
7339 Krueger Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2440	$1,900	$0.78	45d	1	1.45mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	45d	1	1.47mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-04-11
    listed $299,900 Active 637-char remark
14. 2026-03-13
    historical
15. 2025-12-20
    listed $299,000 Active
16. 2025-12-20
    historical
17. 2025-10-31
    listed $299,000 Active
18. 2025-10-24
    historical
19. 2025-10-11
    listed $281,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,138 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,138 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,551
• − Property taxes: −$6,138
• − Insurance: −$1,477
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$8,596
• Taxable loss: −$9,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed $281,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+89.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,138 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.