5421 Ebonywood Ln · Roscoe, IL 61073

$30,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Built 1994 $773/mo HOA · 45% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Diamond in the Rough! Opportunity in Forest View 55+ Community! Comfortable 3 bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a desirable split floor plan with a private primary suite. Enjoy a fenced backyard and an oversized 2.5 car garage. Property needs work and is priced accordingly, offering excellent potential for investors or owner-occupants. Property is being sold As-Is. Cash Offers Only!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994
• Listed 140 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $773

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Two main-level bathrooms
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 2.8% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#61 in IL, #1,071 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Olson Park Elem School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #577 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 343 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.22%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,844
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5476 Ebonywood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	1mo	$66,500	$46	88
5396 Heartwood Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	7mo	$23,500	$17	87
5447 Autumnash Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-2%)	7mo	$73,000	$54	84
5411 Autumnash Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	4mo	$87,000	$60	83
5492 Heartwood Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	9mo	$50,000	$34	80
8581 Springwood Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	6mo	$77,400	$53	80
5381 Cypress Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	11mo	$84,000	$58	76
5370 Irving Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	14mo	$93,000	$64	72
5367 Autumnash Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	21mo	$65,000	$45	69
5437 Cypress Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	22mo	$97,000	$67	66
5477 White Pine Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	10mo	$87,500	$56	63
8402 Tamarack Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	18mo	$70,000	$45	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $19,811
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $50,411
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61073

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$773
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5515 Tall Pines Pkwy Unit 1 Roscoe, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	13d	1	0.99mi
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	13d	2	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $773 · $9,276/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-01-29
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − HOA: −$9,276
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $4,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $3,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1071

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roscoe, IL
• City population: 20,008
• Population (ZIP): 20,008

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.22%
• Current HPI: 248.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $30,000 NWIAR