3838 Thunderbird Hill Cir · Sebring, FL 33872

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1984 5,227 sqft lot Est $186k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is located in Thunderbird Hill Village I. This home is well maintained and is in move-in ready condition. From the front entry step into the large living room. You will love the open feel with neutral colors. This floor plan flows nicely to the dining room and kitchen. Move beyond the dining room to the family room with new laminate wood flooring. A door from the family room opens to the screened porch overlooking the backyard. The master bedroom is spacious with a large walk-in closet. The master bathroom includes a step-in shower. The roof was replace in 2022. Flooring throughout is laminate wood and tile. The interior living area is freshly painted. This community has a low $85/month maintenance fee which includes lawn mowing, trimming, and inground irrigation system. Also included in the fee is the community center, pool and shuffleboard courts which are a short walk away. This is an active community with planned activities.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Refreshing pool
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• NEARBY CLUBHOUSE
• REFRESHING POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $85 monthly fee; Community clubhouse and pool; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank (sewer not available)
• Home design: Single-family villa; One-story home
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Community pool available; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes Oven, Range, Microwave, Dishwasher, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dryer, Dishwasher, Microwave, Oven, Range, Refrigerator, Washer; Carpet, Laminate, Simulated Wood flooring; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($593/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sun 'N Lake Elementary School (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 618 students, 67% FRL); Hill-Gustat Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 705 students, 63% FRL); Sebring High School (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,809 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,053 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 Thunderbird Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,038 (+0%)	9mo	$185,000	$178	90
3700 Sunbird Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,038 (+0%)	7mo	$186,000	$179	86
3713 Thunderbird Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	950 (-8%)	9mo	$160,000	$168	75
3717 Sunbird Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,182 (+14%)	2mo	$200,900	$170	71
302 Citroen Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,135 (+10%)	2mo	$215,000	$189	66
3505 Lister St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,005 (-3%)	0mo	$192,000	$191	63
417 Abarth Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,011 (-2%)	2mo	$140,000	$138	59
1557 Willow Dl	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+7%)	15mo	$230,000	$208	54
1001 Citroen Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+7%)	13mo	$160,000	$145	46
506 S Egret St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,165 (+13%)	1mo	$210,000	$180	44
3124 Bristol St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+10%)	14mo	$258,000	$227	37
630 Corvette Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+11%)	15mo	$255,000	$222	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-27,941
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,602
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33872

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $100	+0% $49	+5% $-1	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-11	+0% $49	+5% $110	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $95	base $49	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus $175,000
18. 2024-03-14
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    This home is located in Thunderbird Hill Village I. This home is well maintained and is in move-in ready condition. From the front entry step into the large living room. You will love the open feel with neutral colors. This floor plan flows nicely to the dining room and kitchen. Move beyond the dining room to the family room with new laminate wood flooring. A door from the family room opens to the screened porch overlooking the backyard. The master bedroom is spacious with a large walk-in closet. The master bathroom includes a step-in shower. The roof was replace in 2022. Flooring throughout is laminate wood and tile. The interior living area is freshly painted. This community has a low $85/month maintenance fee which includes lawn mowing, trimming, and inground irrigation system. Also included in the fee is the community center, pool and shuffleboard courts which are a short walk away. This is an active community with planned activities.

19. 2024-02-25
    historical Active Under Contract 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    This home is located in Thunderbird Hill Village I. This home is well maintained and is in move-in ready condition. From the front entry step into the large living room. You will love the open feel with neutral colors. This floor plan flows nicely to the dining room and kitchen. Move beyond the dining room to the family room with new laminate wood flooring. A door from the family room opens to the screened porch overlooking the backyard. The master bedroom is spacious with a large walk-in closet. The master bathroom includes a step-in shower. The roof was replace in 2022. Flooring throughout is laminate wood and tile. The interior living area is freshly painted. This community has a low $85/month maintenance fee which includes lawn mowing, trimming, and inground irrigation system. Also included in the fee is the community center, pool and shuffleboard courts which are a short walk away. This is an active community with planned activities.

20. 2024-02-13
    listed $179,900 Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    This home is located in Thunderbird Hill Village I. This home is well maintained and is in move-in ready condition. From the front entry step into the large living room. You will love the open feel with neutral colors. This floor plan flows nicely to the dining room and kitchen. Move beyond the dining room to the family room with new laminate wood flooring. A door from the family room opens to the screened porch overlooking the backyard. The master bedroom is spacious with a large walk-in closet. The master bathroom includes a step-in shower. The roof was replace in 2022. Flooring throughout is laminate wood and tile. The interior living area is freshly painted. This community has a low $85/month maintenance fee which includes lawn mowing, trimming, and inground irrigation system. Also included in the fee is the community center, pool and shuffleboard courts which are a short walk away. This is an active community with planned activities.

21. 2002-11-14
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$2,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$589
• After-tax cash flow: $1,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 50,797
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,746
• Household income: $69,578
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.20%
• Current HPI: 225.3761
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+206.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $189,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-14 Sold (MLS) $175,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-02-25 Contingent — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-02-13 Listed $179,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2002-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.