0 Fritch Dr · Lake Meredith Estates, TX 79036

$44,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1970 5,266 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS OR HANDYMEN! We just listed this is a handyman or investor special that is being sold AS IS but it does have a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• 5,266 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 307 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#996 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sanford-Fritch ISD (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sanford-Fritch El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 309 students, 54% FRL); Sanford-Fritch J H (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 163 students, 50% FRL); Sanford-Fritch H S (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #795 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 216 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.41%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $15,735
• Equity at exit: $6,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $43,387
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79036

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $44,999

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $377	+0% $361	+5% $346	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $294	-5% $328	+0% $361	+5% $395	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $373	base $361	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,999 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,999 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,999 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,999 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,999 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 300 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,999 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,999 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $44,999 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,999 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,999 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,999 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,999 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,999 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,999 Active 287 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,999 Active 286 DOM
18. 2025-08-18
    listed $44,999 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    INVESTORS OR HANDYMEN! We just listed this is a handyman or investor special that is being sold AS IS but it does have a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

19. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    Vacant lot

20. 2017-08-28
    listed $600 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    Vacant lot

21. 2005-09-27
    soldstatus
22. 1990-06-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$817
• − Management: −$817
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$924
• After-tax cash flow: $3,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanford-Fritch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,570
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5314
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Meredith Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #17712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Meredith Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,957

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.35%
• Current HPI: 148.285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Listed $44,999 HARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2017-08-28 Listed $600 AARMLS
• 2005-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $83 · -72.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.