222 Highview Rd · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$495,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1979 3.11 ac lot Est $537k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape the noise and congestion of everyday life and come home to space, privacy, and country-living, without giving up convenience. Located just 6 miles from the train and minutes to everyday amenities, this completely remodeled bi-level offers the perfect balance. Set on over 3 acres of beautiful, level and private property, the home has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Hardwood floors run throughout, and the stunning Quartz kitchen with stainless steel appliances showcases a clean, striking space that feels both stylish and practical. Two newly renovated bathrooms feature contemporary finishes and quality craftsmanship. A bright sunroom with walls of windows brings t

Key facts

• 3.11 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $495k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $488k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $495k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $487,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,504
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Highview Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,592 (0%)	1mo	$503,500	$316	97
476 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-3%)	12mo	$519,000	$337	53
461 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-2%)	15mo	$600,000	$386	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $303,282
• Equity at exit: $445,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $866,756
• Equity at exit: $961,676

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$576 /mo · $6,917/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,039
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,277

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $808	-5% $668	+0% $528	+5% $388	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $333	+0% $528	+5% $724	+10% $919
Rate	-1.0pp $778	-0.5pp $654	base $528	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $495,000 Active
3. 2026-02-13
   historical $495,000
4. 2013-09-07
   soldstatus $230,000
5. 2013-03-05
   listed $239,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,917 · $576/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,641 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: +$724/yr (+$60/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$6,917
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,747
• − Management: −$4,747
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$401
• After-tax cash flow: $6,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Coming Soon $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-05 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,917 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.