2355 Atwater Blvd #28 · Atwater, CA 95301

$114,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 933 sqft · Manufactured · 233 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Camellia Estates, an inviting all-age community in Atwater! This brand new 2025 Champion manufactured home is move-in ready and offers modern comfort with an affordable space rent of just $595 per month. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home showcases a bright, open layout with stylish fixtures and an inside laundry room for everyday convenience. The spacious kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of cabinet space for storage. Perfect for first-time buyers, growing families, or anyone seeking quality and value, this home offers the ideal combination of comfort and affordability in a friendly community setting. Come experie

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Bright open layout
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Merced County, Atwater area (2355 Atwater Blvd #28, Atwater, CA 95301)
• Financial info: Land lease amount listed separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: no (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with 220V in laundry; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 2025
• Construction: Wood skirting; Manufacturer: Champion; Model/Make: Creekside Manor
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Stone counters in the kitchen; Kitchen open to family/dining area; Living room with unspecified/other feature
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside a dedicated laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,156 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.41%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,020
• Equity at exit: $17,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $37,040
• Equity at exit: $9,939

Cash invested: $32,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95301

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $114,950

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $426	+0% $387	+5% $347	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $328	+0% $387	+5% $446	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $416	base $387	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,738
• Closing costs: $3,448
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,950 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,950 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,950 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,950 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,950 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,950 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,950 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,950 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,950 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,950 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,950 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,950 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,950 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,950 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,950 Active 214 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,439
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$3,344
• Taxable income: $2,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$717
• After-tax cash flow: $3,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Atwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #9893

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atwater, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,009
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -365.43%
• Current HPI: 281.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B