4150 Pear Rd · Willow Oak, FL 33860

$349,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1979 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET. Opportunity knocks again. Income producing triplex. The triplex has two units with 2 bedroom 1 bath, one unit 1 bedroom 1 bath. All units are rented with opportunity for a rent increase. the building also has and a small 15 X 21 unit that can be converted into a community laundry or a storage area for landscaping tools. The building has three separate electric meter

Key facts

• Steady cash flow
• Outdoor space
• Huge lot

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING TRIPLEX
• HUGE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• SOLID MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY
• STEADY CASH FLOW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-1
• Financial info: Gross income reported: $30,300; Annual net income reported: $22,000; Annual expenses reported: $7,500; Total monthly expenses reported: $23; Tenants pay electricity and water; Unit pro forma rents: two 2-bed units at $1,200 each; one 1-bed unit at $850
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and off-street open parking; Carport with 8 spaces
• Utilities: Public water and well; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Residential income property (triplex); Total of 3 buildings on the parcel; Single-story
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built area reported for living space and buildings
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 102 x 138; Lot size about 0.32 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Multiple bathrooms (unit-level details available)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $360/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#579 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,287/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $350k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.21%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $6,005
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $69,761
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,928/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$900
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,277	-5% $1,178	+0% $1,079	+5% $980	+10% $881
Rent	-10% $740	-5% $909	+0% $1,079	+5% $1,248	+10% $1,417
Rate	-1.0pp $1,255	-0.5pp $1,168	base $1,079	+0.5pp $988	+1.0pp $896

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,964
1× unit	1	1	$1,322
Total (3 units)			$4,287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6868 Bordeaux Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	4d	1	1.28mi
6868 Bordeaux Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	15d	1	1.28mi
2292 Blackwood Dr Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,865	$1.10	20d	1	1.30mi
2937 Coach Lamp Rd Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,135	$1.47	4d	1	1.31mi
2262 Blackwood Dr Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,085	$1.38	4d	1	1.41mi
3227 Ogden Dr Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,325	$1.35	20d	1	1.49mi
3227 Ogden Dr Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,325	$1.35	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 561-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $349,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,928 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,928 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$3,928
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,116
• − Management: −$4,116
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable income: $7,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $11,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Willow Oak

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #11029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Oak, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1195.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-14 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-15 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-19 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-05 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-02 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,928 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.