1615 Crockett St · Bellmead, TX 76705

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Other public records · 432 Days on market

Built 2000 8,999 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% above area Est $132k · 10% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of Waco, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers both convenience and charm. Less than 10 minutes from Baylor University and Cameron Park, it’s perfectly situated for easy access to schools, parks, and city amenities. Inside, the kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry, a central island, and a farmhouse-style sink that adds tons of character. The primary suite is spacious and thoughtfully designed, offering a quiet escape at the end of the day. Owner financing is also available, making homeownership more accessible than ever! Don’t miss this opportunity—it won't last long! Owner Financing Available!

Key facts

• Central island
• Ample cabinetry
• Farmhouse-style sink

Tags

• AMPLE CABINETRY
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• FARMHOUSE-STYLE SINK
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9573% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.72%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,065
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 9.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,704
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $22,963
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $404	+0% $363	+5% $322	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $300	+0% $363	+5% $426	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $400	base $363	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Rocking K Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,699	$1.31	14d	1	0.68mi
4245 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	772	$1,745	$2.26	14d	1	1.08mi
4245 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	772	$1,175	$1.52	22d	1	1.08mi
320 S Rita St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	14d	1	1.15mi
4307 Bellcrest St Bellmead, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	22d	1	1.30mi
129 N Lakeview Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$3,750	$3.11	45d	1	1.31mi
500 E Craven Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	14d	1	1.36mi
218 Avenue F Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 431 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 430 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 429 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 426 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 424 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 423 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 422 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 421 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $150,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Located in the heart of Waco, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers both convenience and charm. Less than 10 minutes from Baylor University and Cameron Park, it’s perfectly situated for easy access to schools, parks, and city amenities. Inside, the kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry, a central island, and a farmhouse-style sink that adds tons of character. The primary suite is spacious and thoughtfully designed, offering a quiet escape at the end of the day. Owner financing is also available, making homeownership more accessible than ever! Don’t miss this opportunity—it won't last long! Owner Financing Available!

16. 2026-04-09
    price $154,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Located in the heart of Waco, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers both convenience and charm. Less than 10 minutes from Baylor University and Cameron Park, it’s perfectly situated for easy access to schools, parks, and city amenities. Inside, the kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry, a central island, and a farmhouse-style sink that adds tons of character. The primary suite is spacious and thoughtfully designed, offering a quiet escape at the end of the day. Owner financing is also available, making homeownership more accessible than ever! Don’t miss this opportunity—it won't last long! Owner Financing Available!

17. 2026-04-03
    historical $1,499
18. 2026-03-29
    listed $1,499
19. 2026-01-17
    historical $1,650
20. 2025-09-10
    price $1,650
21. 2025-06-01
    price $165,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Located in the heart of Waco, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers both convenience and charm. Less than 10 minutes from Baylor University and Cameron Park, it’s perfectly situated for easy access to schools, parks, and city amenities. Inside, the kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry, a central island, and a farmhouse-style sink that adds tons of character. The primary suite is spacious and thoughtfully designed, offering a quiet escape at the end of the day. Owner financing is also available, making homeownership more accessible than ever! Don’t miss this opportunity—it won't last long! Owner Financing Available!

22. 2025-05-16
    listed $1,800
23. 2025-04-18
    historical
24. 2025-02-28
    listed $175,000 Active
25. 2025-02-26
    listed $175,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Located in the heart of Waco, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers both convenience and charm. Less than 10 minutes from Baylor University and Cameron Park, it’s perfectly situated for easy access to schools, parks, and city amenities. Inside, the kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry, a central island, and a farmhouse-style sink that adds tons of character. The primary suite is spacious and thoughtfully designed, offering a quiet escape at the end of the day. Owner financing is also available, making homeownership more accessible than ever! Don’t miss this opportunity—it won't last long! Owner Financing Available!

26. 2024-05-22
    soldstatus
27. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus
28. 2002-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,753/yr (+$146/mo · 194.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $3,851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $154,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,499 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-29 Listed for Rent $1,499 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-17 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-16 Listed for Rent $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $901 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.