Charlotte Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$335,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Larger covered entry
• Walk-in tile shower

Tags

• RECESSED TRUSS COVERED PORCH
• LARGER COVERED ENTRY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN TILE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $429,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Charlotte)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,338

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Charlotte (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $335,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,178.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $336k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,246 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $423,178
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Lysander Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-10%)	3mo	$430,000	$205	65
58 Bickford Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,401 (+3%)	8mo	$380,000	$158	64
13 Buffalo View Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (+5%)	0mo	$320,000	$131	63
7 Bickshire Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,448 (+5%)	3mo	$532,500	$218	60
37 Buffalo Plains Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,238 (-4%)	4mo	$325,000	$145	57
12 Buffalo Berry Pl	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,294 (-2%)	8mo	$415,000	$181	54
49 Louisiana Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,277 (-3%)	4mo	$448,000	$197	52
33 Bud Field Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,083 (-11%)	9mo	$303,000	$145	52
8 Bud Hollow Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,151 (-8%)	2mo	$399,900	$186	45
2 Bird Haven Pl	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,143 (-8%)	6mo	$300,000	$140	42
3 Bickford Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,125 (-9%)	8mo	$388,250	$183	37
6 Bud Hollow Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,677 (+14%)	6mo	$469,900	$176	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-114,900
• Equity at exit: $63,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-175,828
• Equity at exit: $36,589

Cash invested: $118,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,219
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$529 /mo · $6,348/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,702

Max offer price $331,792

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,794
• Closing costs: $12,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Bishop Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2518	$2,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.50mi
106 La Mancha Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$1,900	$1.16	23d	1	0.59mi
7 Lancaster Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1859	$3,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.63mi
19 Burgess Pl Palm Coast, FL	5.0	3.0	3143	$2,300	$0.73	14d	1	0.84mi
34 Bunker Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,990 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,990 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,990 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $335,990 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $429,990 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $429,990 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,705
• − Property taxes: −$6,348
• − Insurance: −$2,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − Depreciation: −$12,311
• Taxable loss: −$15,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B