20 Elder Ave · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$500,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1997 Poor condition 5,400 sqft lot $893/sqft · 25% below area Est $664k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to acquire a property on the Rampasture peninsula in Hampton Bays. Water on three sides of the neighborhood, two blocks to Tiana Bay, and close proximity to bay beaches. Existing 1997 Ranch on a 5,400 sq ft lot in the Mineola Court subdivision. R-40 zoning. Flood Zone X (minimal flood hazard) a notable advantage for a water-surrounded peninsula location. Property sold strictly as-is, no interior access available. Full gut should be assumed. Buyer to perform all due diligence including but not limited to structure, septic, CO status, permits, and zoning variance requirements for any new construction or expansion.

Key facts

• Flood zone x
• Water on three sides
• R-40 zoning

Tags

• WATER ON THREE SIDES
• TWO BLOCKS TO TIANA BAY
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BAY BEACHES
• FLOOD ZONE X
• R-40 ZONING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $485k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.9% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,066/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $500k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $485,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $663,589
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -24.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Rampasture Rd #6	0.23mi	1/1.0 (-1)	500 (-11%)	1mo	$295,000	$590	62
46 Rampasture Rd #5	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	650 (+16%)	14mo	$305,000	$469	41
59 Homewood Dr	1.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	626 (+12%)	2mo	$875,000	$1,398	39
12 E Tiana Rd #6	1.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	500 (-11%)	1mo	$335,000	$670	37
5 Sherman Ave	1.01mi	2/1.0	648 (+16%)	2mo	$596,000	$920	34
12 E Tiana Rd #5	1.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (+7%)	13mo	$300,000	$500	33
11 Shell Rd	1.05mi	2/1.0	648 (+16%)	4mo	$680,000	$1,049	33
95 Springville Rd #8	1.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+11%)	7mo	$490,000	$785	31
51 Shore Rd	1.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	676 (+21%)	6mo	$953,780	$1,411	26
81 West Tiana Rd Unit b5	0.83mi	1/1.0 (-1)	475 (-15%)	11mo	$290,000	$611	22
114 Bay Ave E	1.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	472 (-16%)	28mo	$325,000	$689	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $63,070
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $344,623
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $550,000 ($1062/sqft)
• Median days on market: 32 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,403/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,274
• Net cashflow: $1,762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,836

Max offer price $500,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,045	-5% $1,903	+0% $1,762	+5% $1,620	+10% $1,479
Rent	-10% $1,282	-5% $1,522	+0% $1,762	+5% $2,001	+10% $2,241
Rate	-1.0pp $2,013	-0.5pp $1,889	base $1,762	+0.5pp $1,632	+1.0pp $1,500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type listed as single family residence
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parkingNo carport
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingOther heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Simple interior finishesNo basementNo attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-24
   days on market $500,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $500,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $500,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $500,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $500,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $500,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $500,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $500,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $500,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $500,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $500,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $500,000 Active
19. 1997-01-22
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 1992-02-13
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,427 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,023/yr (+$252/mo · 125.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$2,403
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,824
• − Management: −$5,824
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable income: $13,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,286
• After-tax cash flow: $17,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab Est. rehab $56,000–$84,000 screening

This property requires extensive renovations, including a new roof, exterior siding, flooring, interior walls, HVAC system, landscaping, and fencing. The home's location on the water and its proximity to beaches make it a rare opportunity, but the current condition significantly impacts its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be old and weathered, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding and paint appear to be in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible wear.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the visible areas appears to be old and worn, with visible signs of wear and tear.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls appear to be in poor condition, with visible signs of wear and tear.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement or repair.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of maintenance.
• Major fencing — The fencing appears to be in poor condition, with visible signs of wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New interior walls and paint — New interior walls and paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing — Landscaping and fencing will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Gut scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type listed as single family residence
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parkingNo carport
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingOther heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Simple interior finishesNo basementNo attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,403 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.