13834 Flay Ave N · Hugo, MN 55038

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Townhouse public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2000 1,655 sqft lot $175/sqft · 22% below area Est $344k · 24% under $238/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell quickly, great location, 3 bedrooms on one level with nice size master with walk-in-closet and 3/4 bath. Convenient upper laundry room. Enjoy front porch and side patio. This townhome is move in ready, nice neutral colors.

Key facts

• Build instant equity
• Easy commute
• Pets welcome

Tags

• UPPER-LEVEL LAUNDRY HOOKUP
• EASY COMMUTE
• RESTAURANTS PARKS TRAILS
• PETS WELCOME
• RENTALS ALLOWED
• BUILD INSTANT EQUITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,531 square feet; Main level finished area approximately 625; Corner lot on private, paved city street
• HOA & community: Part of Advantage Townhomes association; Monthly HOA fee of $238; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal; Association maintains the road; Association sprinkler system amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuck-under insulated garage with automatic opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas service; Electric service via Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Vinyl exterior; Corner lot; Light tree coverage; In-ground sprinkler system; No fencing indicated

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Gas water heater; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all bedrooms located on the upper level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One three-quarter bathroom on the upper level; Three-quarter primary bathroom; Main floor half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Walk-in closet; Primary bath ensuite; 3/4 primary bath; Upper level full bath; Upper level 3/4 bath; Main floor half bath; Walk-in shower stall; Breakfast bar; Informal dining area; Kitchen/dining room layout; Living/dining room layout; 2nd floor laundry; 3 bedrooms on one level; Patio; Porch; In-ground sprinkler system; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Upper level laundry with washer and dryer hookups; Laundry closet; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $260k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $252,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,878
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -24.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,716
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-22,468
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$238
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $172	+0% $99	+5% $25	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-4	+0% $99	+5% $201	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $165	base $99	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,800	$2.91	0d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $238 · $2,856/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $260,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $260,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $260,000 Active 1177-char remark
15. 2023-10-30
    historical $1,795
16. 2023-10-08
    price $1,795
17. 2023-09-14
    price $1,852
18. 2023-09-03
    listed $1,972
19. 2013-06-04
    soldstatus $136,250
20. 2013-05-28
    soldstatus $136,250 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Priced to sell quickly, great location, 3 bedrooms on one level with nice size master with walk-in-closet and 3/4 bath. Convenient upper laundry room. Enjoy front porch and side patio. This townhome is move in ready, nice neutral colors.

21. 2013-05-01
    historical 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Priced to sell quickly, great location, 3 bedrooms on one level with nice size master with walk-in-closet and 3/4 bath. Convenient upper laundry room. Enjoy front porch and side patio. This townhome is move in ready, nice neutral colors.

22. 2013-04-16
    listed $139,900 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Priced to sell quickly, great location, 3 bedrooms on one level with nice size master with walk-in-closet and 3/4 bath. Convenient upper laundry room. Enjoy front porch and side patio. This townhome is move in ready, nice neutral colors.

23. 2009-06-24
    soldstatus $115,000
24. 2009-06-18
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    This unit has it all. Location, Location, Location, 3 BR, 3 BA, upper level laundry, big yard, front porch, side patio. Be 1st, not sorry.

25. 2009-06-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    This unit has it all. Location, Location, Location, 3 BR, 3 BA, upper level laundry, big yard, front porch, side patio. Be 1st, not sorry.

26. 2009-01-19
    listed $125,000

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    This unit has it all. Location, Location, Location, 3 BR, 3 BA, upper level laundry, big yard, front porch, side patio. Be 1st, not sorry.

27. 2001-03-30
    soldstatus $135,608

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,908 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,492
• − Management: −$2,492
• − HOA: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $1,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Rental Removed $1,795 PROPERTYWARE
• 2023-10-08 Price Changed $1,795 PROPERTYWARE
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $1,852 PROPERTYWARE
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent $1,972 PROPERTYWARE
• 2013-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $136,250 Public Records
• 2013-05-28 Sold (MLS) $136,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-16 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-18 Sold (MLS) $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-19 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $135,608 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.