306 Pickwick Gardens Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$237,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,115 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning 2021-built home featuring the highly desirable San Marcos floor plan. Designed with comfort and functionality in mind, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers high ceilings and an open, airy layout perfect for modern living. The spacious family room flows seamlessly into a casual breakfast area, creating the ideal setting for entertaining or everyday gatherings. The primary suite is generously sized and boasts a private en-suite bath with a walk-in closet, offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers added privacy and minimal through traffic. Move-in ready and waiting for you to call it home!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Walk-in closet
• 6,115 sq ft lot

Tags

• SAN MARCOS FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Membership in Montage Community Service; Annual association fee of $575 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2021; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Cul-de-sac lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor (8 x 5); Bathroom on first floor (11 x 5)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace (1); Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,998 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,615
• List price: $237,900
• Delta: 0.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Rosebank Rnch	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,319 (+1%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	91
540 Flower Reed Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (+2%)	2mo	$255,990	$192	70
710 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-2%)	1mo	$237,990	$187	64
434 Southern Magnolia Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-2%)	1mo	$240,990	$189	64
723 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+1%)	2mo	$239,990	$183	64
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+13%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	54
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+8%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	52
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+9%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	52
490 Southern Magnolia Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+8%)	3mo	$244,990	$174	48
486 Southern Magnolia Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+9%)	3mo	$243,990	$172	47
533 Southern Magnolia Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+8%)	2mo	$244,990	$174	46
537 Southern Magnolia Way	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+9%)	2mo	$243,990	$172	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $102,887
• Equity at exit: $214,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $310,777
• Equity at exit: $462,187

Cash invested: $66,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$536 /mo · $6,426/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $177,998

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-272	+0% $-339	+5% $-406	+10% $-474
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-419	+0% $-339	+5% $-260	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-219	-0.5pp $-279	base $-339	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,475
• Closing costs: $7,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	23d	1	0.09mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	0.16mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.36mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.59mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.77mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $237,900 Active 681-char remark
16. 2026-04-16
    historical
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $237,900 Active
18. 2022-11-03
    historical
19. 2022-09-26
    listed $269,900 Active
20. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2022-02-21
    status Pending
22. 2022-02-19
    price $247,990
23. 2022-02-08
    price $245,990
24. 2022-02-06
    listed $242,990 Active
25. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,426 · $536/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,426 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,326
• − Property taxes: −$6,426
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,921
• Taxable loss: −$8,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,953
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2021-built home is move-in ready and offers a modern, open floor plan with high ceilings and an airy layout. The home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $237,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $237,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $237,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-26 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-19 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2022-02-08 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2022-02-06 Listed $242,990 HARMLS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,426 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.