124 Gulf Breeze Dr · Milam, TX 75948

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1995 6,534 sqft lot $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover affordable lake-area living in Pendleton Harbor, a community set on a scenic golf course and just minutes from world-class fishing and hunting on Toledo Bend Lake. This well-cared-for 1995 Southern Lifestyle Homes, Southern Prestige model offers a solid 3-bedroom/2-bath mobile home on a manageable 0.075-acre lot. Inside, you'll find central heating plus new, upgraded window units for efficient cooling, giving year-round comfort. The home has been maintained with care, making it an ideal choice for a vacation camp, weekend getaway, or peaceful retirement retreat. Pendleton Harbor combines golf, lake access, and the natural beauty East Texas is known for — all in one community.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Lake area living
• Scenic golf course

Tags

• LAKE AREA LIVING
• SCENIC GOLF COURSE
• WORLD CLASS FISHING
• HUNTING ON TOLEDO BEND LAKE
• CENTRAL HEATING
• UPGRADED WINDOW UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $100 (about $8.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; 0.15-acre lot; Located in the Pendelton Harbor subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Smoke detectors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($918 rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.9% in Milam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,169 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 334 students, 66% FRL); Hemphill Middle (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 252 students, 63% FRL); Hemphill H S (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 254 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.17%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $10,768
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $35,589
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $771/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $514

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $336	+0% $319	+5% $302	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $283	+0% $319	+5% $355	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $334	base $319	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2025-09-18
    listed $59,000 Active 809-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $771 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$771
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $3,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $3,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Milam

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1169
• US rank: #20453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milam, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Listed $59,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $771 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.