116 Road 5240 · Dayton, TX 77327

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Built 2018 0.40 ac lot $96/sqft · 12% below area Est $171k · 12% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to country living in this move-in-ready, open-concept home tucked away on a cul-de-sac. This is not your typical manufactured home, featuring a large, attached garage, great curb appeal, and a layout that feels like a traditional build. Inside, enjoy wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a bright kitchen with cream-white cabinetry. All appliances located in the physical property are included, along with a whole-house water softener and a one-year-old roof. Outside, relax on the massive deck and porch complete with TV and patio furniture. The property also includes a sprinkler system. Conveniently located near HWY 59/99 and just minutes from major shopping stores, this home offers a rare blend of rural living and modern convenience.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Sprinkler system
• Massive deck

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• CREAM-WHITE CABINETRY
• WHOLE-HOUSE WATER SOFTENER
• MASSIVE DECK
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,707
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -12.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,490
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,758
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $419	+0% $377	+5% $334	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $307	+0% $377	+5% $446	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $415	base $377	+0.5pp $338	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Road 5203 Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,150	$1.12	0d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $165,000 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Escape to country living in this move-in-ready, open-concept home tucked away on a cul-de-sac. This is not your typical manufactured home, featuring a large, attached garage, great curb appeal, and a layout that feels like a traditional build. Inside, enjoy wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a bright kitchen with cream-white cabinetry. All appliances located in the physical property are included, along with a whole-house water softener and a one-year-old roof. Outside, relax on the massive deck and porch complete with TV and patio furniture. The property also includes a sprinkler system. Conveniently located near HWY 59/99 and just minutes from major shopping stores, this home offers a rare blend of rural living and modern convenience.

16. 2026-01-15
    listed $174,900 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Escape to country living in this move-in-ready, open-concept home tucked away on a cul-de-sac. This is not your typical manufactured home, featuring a large, attached garage, great curb appeal, and a layout that feels like a traditional build. Inside, enjoy wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a bright kitchen with cream-white cabinetry. All appliances located in the physical property are included, along with a whole-house water softener and a one-year-old roof. Outside, relax on the massive deck and porch complete with TV and patio furniture. The property also includes a sprinkler system. Conveniently located near HWY 59/99 and just minutes from major shopping stores, this home offers a rare blend of rural living and modern convenience.

17. 2025-12-30
    historical
18. 2025-11-17
    price $153,009
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $163,000 Active
20. 2025-09-04
    historical
21. 2025-08-24
    price $165,000
22. 2025-07-15
    listed $175,000 Active
23. 2025-05-31
    historical
24. 2025-04-17
    price $174,500
25. 2025-01-26
    price $180,000
26. 2024-12-04
    listed $199,000 Active
27. 2024-10-16
    historical
28. 2024-05-21
    listed $199,900 Active
29. 2024-05-21
    historical
30. 2024-02-20
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,638/yr (+$136/mo · 147.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $153,009 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $163,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $174,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-26 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $219,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.