7013 Shipley Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1946 0.27 ac lot Est $219k · 41% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7013 Shipley Ln! This home is a solid built home with Bedford stone exterior, a one car detached garage, and a fenced in backyard. This is no cookie cutter! It has a unique floor plan with a huge spa-like bathroom & it's located on a quiet street with little traffic. This home needs a little TLC. Seller is selling ''As Is''. Home will not qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA home loans. Cash or Conventional financing.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.71%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13510 Laverton Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+7%)	6mo	$225,000	$141	42
7406 Dunkirk Ln	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,366 (-9%)	12mo	$200,000	$146	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,758
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,527
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,426/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $362	+0% $325	+5% $288	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $266	+0% $325	+5% $384	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $358	base $325	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	2d	1	1.05mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	2d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-11-13
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-07
   soldstatus $125,000
3. 2023-03-10
   status Pending
4. 2023-01-17
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2023-01-17
   price $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,426
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-01-17 Price Changed $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-01-17 Listed $130,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,426 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.