5609 Newcastle Ct #5411 · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$331,997

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · Townhouse · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $846/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5609 Newcastle Court #5411 in the heart of Ave Maria, Florida—a brand-new, never-lived-in Arrowhead floor plan offering the perfect blend of modern design, comfort, and low-maintenance living with a non-golf social membership. Located within The National Golf & Country Club at Ave Maria, this exceptional community welcomes you to paradise—where you’ll find championship golf, top-tier resort-style amenities, and endless opportunities to play, relax, and connect. Set in the stunning town of Ave Maria, this gated community is thoughtfully designed for your next best chapter. This beautifully crafted single-story residence features 1,741 square feet of thought

Key facts

• Gated community
• Quartz countertops
• Arrowhead floor plan

Tags

• ARROWHEAD FLOOR PLAN
• GATED COMMUNITY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER CABINETRY
• LED RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Built in 2026; Part of a 4-unit building with one floor and one unit per floor; Possession at closing; Restrictions: Architectural, Deeded, No Commercial, No RV

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee of $203; Quarterly HOA fee of $885; Quarterly condo fee of $1,449; Professional management; Maintenance covers legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, street lights, and street maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, fitness center, full-service spa, restaurant, beauty salon, business center, bocce, tennis, pickleball, putting green, golf course (private membership), sidewalks and streetlights, underground utilities; One-time other fee of $250; Total annual recurring fees listed as $10,898; Total one-time fees listed as $2,750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate; Patrolled community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1–3 stories); Carriage/coach building description; Zero lot line; Rear exposure to the west; Located in The National Golf & Country Club at Ave Maria (gated community)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact-resistant windows and doors
• Exterior features: Patio; Automatic sprinkler system; Lake frontage; Golf course and lake views; Irrigation with reclaimed water

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Walk-in pantry; Cooktop (electric); Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/ice maker; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; First-floor bedroom; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Split bedroom floor plan; Guest bath; Guest room; Home office; Screened balcony; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $332k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $332k).
• Recommended offer: $312k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,340/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $312,077 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,001
• Equity at exit: $79,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $45,317
• Equity at exit: $82,694

Cash invested: $92,959 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,980/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$846
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$911
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,975

Max offer price $331,997

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $403	+0% $288	+5% $173	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $117	+0% $288	+5% $460	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $373	base $288	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,999
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,195	$1.96	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	22d	1	0.10mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	22d	1	0.10mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,495	$4.91	24d	1	0.10mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	24d	1	0.11mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3013 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,595	$1.90	22d	1	0.11mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	0.11mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	24d	1	0.12mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	24d	1	0.12mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	24d	1	0.13mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	13d	1	0.13mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	13d	1	0.14mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4318 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,200	$1.69	22d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir Unit 1545996P Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,581	$2.02	15d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4323 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	22d	1	0.15mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4416 1 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,300	$1.99	24d	1	0.15mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4432AVE Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1283	$2,495	$1.94	24d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,495	$2.16	24d	1	0.16mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3914 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3936 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	15d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3918 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,995	$4.61	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3916 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,950	$5.16	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3913 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	24d	1	0.17mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	13d	1	0.17mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	4d	1	0.17mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	24d	1	0.18mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.20mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3838 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,295	$1.76	24d	1	0.21mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.21mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	24d	1	0.23mi
5739 Oakmont Ct #8412 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	0.23mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	22d	1	0.23mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	22d	1	0.23mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$3,295	$2.94	24d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $846 · $10,152/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-18
   listed $331,997 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,980
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,166
• − Management: −$4,166
• − HOA: −$10,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$1,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $3,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand-new, never-lived-in Arrowhead floor plan in Ave Maria, Florida, offers modern design, comfort, and low-maintenance living with resort-style amenities. The home is in excellent condition with no repairs needed and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $331,997 NAPLESMLS