10123 Cerritos Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$212,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,887 sqft lot $129/sqft · 10% below area Est $234k · 10% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-Bedroom Home with Flex Space in Crockett Reserve Built in 2022, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a modern open-concept design and great potential for the right buyer. Step inside to discover a versatile floor plan featuring a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or creative space. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances. Virtual furnishings in photos highlight the home's layout and potential.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 4,887 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Crockett Reserve Conroe HOA with annual fee of $470

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (slab foundation); Built in 2022
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,173 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,293
• List price: $212,000
• Delta: -9.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15511 Taylorcrest Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,471 (-11%)	9mo	$178,000	$121	69
15616 Del Norte Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,603 (-3%)	7mo	$229,900	$143	69
15670 Briar Forest Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,884 (+14%)	12mo	$245,000	$130	58
10719 Red Flagstone Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+9%)	1mo	$246,900	$138	53
10707 Red Flagstone Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-8%)	2mo	$234,900	$156	51
10743 Red Flagstone Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+9%)	3mo	$229,900	$129	49
3952 Highline Oaks E	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (+9%)	2mo	$370,000	$207	44
10734 Red Flagstone Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+9%)	12mo	$237,900	$133	42
10767 Red Flagstone Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+9%)	9mo	$227,900	$127	41
10735 Red Flagstone Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+14%)	12mo	$266,900	$142	33
10750 Red Flagstone Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+14%)	12mo	$253,900	$135	31
10759 Red Flagstone Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+14%)	12mo	$252,900	$134	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-35,724
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,692
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,430/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $208,015

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $37	+0% $-23	+5% $-83	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-98	+0% $-23	+5% $53	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $31	base $-23	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.18mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	45d	1	0.23mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	1d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $212,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $212,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $219,900 Active 454-char remark
16. 2026-04-07
    historical
17. 2026-02-01
    price $185,000
18. 2026-01-09
    price $200,000
19. 2025-12-19
    listed $215,000 Active
20. 2025-12-14
    historical
21. 2025-10-30
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus
23. 2023-04-27
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2023-02-24
    status Pending
25. 2023-02-16
    price $239,990
26. 2023-01-18
    price $238,990
27. 2023-01-12
    price $236,990
28. 2022-12-22
    listed $234,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$37/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$3,430
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$3,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$919
• After-tax cash flow: $649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 4-bedroom home in Deerwood, TX, built in 2022, offers a modern open-concept design and great potential. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch, attracting more renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch, attracting more renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $212,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-22 Listed $234,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+90.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,430 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.