3015 Walnut Bend Ln #24 · Houston, TX 77042

$69,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1980 $94/sqft · 24% below area Est $92k · 24% under $320/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and savvy buyers! Incredible opportunity to own in the sought-after gated River Stone Condo community in West Houston's thriving Westchase District. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath unit is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch — renovate to flip or update and hold as a cash-flowing rental in one of Houston's most desirable rental corridors.The open living and dining area features a sliding glass door leading to a private balcony with stunning pool views, bringing in an abundance of natural light. The functional kitchen layout offers solid bones just waiting for a modern refresh. The spacious bedroom provides generous closet space and additional balcony access.HOA covers water, sewer, exterior building, grounds, insurance, and limited access gates. Unbeatable location minutes from Beltway 8, Westpark Tollway, Energy Corridor, and walkable to Target, Whole Foods, and HEB. Sold AS-IS. Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Stunning pool views
• Unbeatable location

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• STUNNING POOL VIEWS
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• ADDITIONAL BALCONY ACCESS
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $46k (34.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($946 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,707 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.41%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,896
• List price: $69,950
• Delta: -23.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-22,588
• Equity at exit: $10,430

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.07×
• Total profit: $-40,582
• Equity at exit: $6,048

Cash invested: $19,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77042

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,027/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$320
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $45,707

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,488
• Closing costs: $2,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 163A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	531	$749	$1.41	15d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 236A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	661	$874	$1.32	24d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 229 Houston, TX	1.0	1.5	661	$825	$1.25	22d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Apt 311 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	531	$657	$1.24	2d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 270A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	661	$799	$1.21	22d	1	0.15mi
10751 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,229	$1.61	1d	16	0.16mi
10936 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$940	$1.09	1d	36	0.16mi
2801 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	566	$862	$1.52	3d	6	0.21mi
2801 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$849	$1.15	24d	1	0.21mi
2750 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$666	$0.93	1d	50	0.24mi
2851 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$749	$0.81	1d	31	0.25mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$820	$1.62	7d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10636 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$855	$1.69	12d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10636 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$817	$1.62	2d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10666 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$850	$1.68	43d	1	0.26mi
10887 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$917	$1.61	24d	1	0.27mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$809	$1.60	12d	1	0.28mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 1504 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$775	$1.52	43d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 1501 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$815	$1.60	43d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 206 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$900	$1.58	43d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 212 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$935	$1.64	43d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10955 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$795	$1.56	12d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10955 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$757	$1.48	2d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10932 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$749	$1.47	12d	1	0.33mi
2800 Wilcrest Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	723	$1,045	$1.45	24d	1	0.33mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 10798 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,311	$2.10	12d	1	0.33mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 10798 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,306	$2.09	12d	1	0.33mi
2756 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$907	$1.43	11d	1	0.34mi
2756 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$907	$1.43	16d	1	0.34mi
10777 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,249	$1.28	1d	22	0.35mi
10777 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,260	$2.02	12d	1	0.35mi
3411 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$581	$0.60	2d	13	0.35mi
3131 Hayes Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$720	$0.87	19d	16	0.46mi
2909 Hayes Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$755	$0.78	3d	21	0.51mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Apt 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$990	$1.43	7d	1	0.54mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Unit 325 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$987	$1.43	2d	1	0.54mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Unit 3405 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,029	$1.49	10d	1	0.54mi
2525 CityWest Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1258	$1,360	$1.08	1d	21	0.62mi
2828 Hayes Rd Unit 2879 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	675	$1,064	$1.58	43d	1	0.63mi
11212 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$990	$0.88	1d	27	0.66mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $320 · $3,840/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,950 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,950 Pending 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,950 Pending 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,950 Pending 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $69,950 Pending 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,950 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,950 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,950 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,950 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,950 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-04-02
    listed $69,950 Active 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Attention investors and savvy buyers! Incredible opportunity to own in the sought-after gated River Stone Condo community in West Houston's thriving Westchase District. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath unit is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch — renovate to flip or update and hold as a cash-flowing rental in one of Houston's most desirable rental corridors.The open living and dining area features a sliding glass door leading to a private balcony with stunning pool views, bringing in an abundance of natural light. The functional kitchen layout offers solid bones just waiting for a modern refresh. The spacious bedroom provides generous closet space and additional balcony access.HOA covers water, sewer, exterior building, grounds, insurance, and limited access gates. Unbeatable location minutes from Beltway 8, Westpark Tollway, Energy Corridor, and walkable to Target, Whole Foods, and HEB. Sold AS-IS. Don't miss this one!

12. 1998-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,918
• − Property taxes: −$2,027
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − HOA: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$2,035
• Taxable loss: −$2,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,721
• Household income: $59,097
• Rent vs Own: 73.7% rent · 26.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% White 31% Black 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.36%
• Current HPI: 215.9671
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $69,950 HARMLS
• 1998-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,027 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.