2625 Austin Dr · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2021 2,178 sqft lot $157/sqft · 7% below area Est $306k · 7% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some homes check boxes. This one changes your mornings. Set in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision, this beautifully constructed 2021-built home offers the kind of lifestyle most people spend years searching for. Inside, the open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces that makes everyday living feel effortless and entertaining feel easy. With 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, there's room for everyone whether you're growing a family, hosting guests, or simply enjoying the space you deserve. Step outside and you're reminded why Canyon Creek is one of the area's most desirable addresses. The peaceful, country feel is real, but so is the convenience. Granbury's historic downtown square, local dining, and shopping are just minutes away, and easy highway access means your commute doesn't have to define your day. Homes like this don't come around often. If you've been waiting for the right one, this is it.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Easy highway access
• 2,178 sq ft lot

Tags

• CANYON CREEK SUBDIVISION
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN SQUARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,842 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,595
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -6.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5507 San Jacinto Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (+3%)	4mo	$314,500	$169	80
2518 Houston Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,729 (-5%)	2mo	$287,000	$166	75
5104 Waterbury Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (-1%)	1mo	$299,500	$167	74
4910 Terlingua Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-1%)	2mo	$349,900	$194	72
2610 Austin Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,985 (+10%)	4mo	$459,900	$232	72
5622 Mesa Loop	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,795 (-1%)	0mo	$285,000	$159	69
5610 San Jacinto Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,709 (-6%)	2mo	$289,999	$170	68
2404 Duro Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-5%)	2mo	$315,000	$182	60
5845 Black Pine Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-12%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	59
5103 San Marcos Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-15%)	2mo	$288,500	$187	58
5812 Belaire Cir	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,871 (+3%)	2mo	$369,900	$198	57
5519 Belaire Cir	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,953 (+8%)	1mo	$379,000	$194	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-64,185
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-89,986
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,801/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,475

Max offer price $246,440

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5114 Stoneridge Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	3.0	2302	$2,295	$1.00	44d	1	0.15mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	3d	1	0.16mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	5d	1	0.26mi
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	24d	1	0.32mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	7d	1	0.38mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,055	$1.42	4d	1	0.39mi
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	44d	1	0.52mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	44d	1	0.84mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	7d	1	0.98mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	4d	1	1.01mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.01mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	44d	1	1.10mi
4202 Indian Creek Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	2202	$2,800	$1.27	20d	1	1.39mi
1425 E Seneca Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$3,200	$1.31	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $295,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Some homes check boxes. This one changes your mornings. Set in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision, this beautifully constructed 2021-built home offers the kind of lifestyle most people spend years searching for. Inside, the open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces that makes everyday living feel effortless and entertaining feel easy. With 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, there's room for everyone whether you're growing a family, hosting guests, or simply enjoying the space you deserve. Step outside and you're reminded why Canyon Creek is one of the area's most desirable addresses. The peaceful, country feel is real, but so is the convenience. Granbury's historic downtown square, local dining, and shopping are just minutes away, and easy highway access means your commute doesn't have to define your day. Homes like this don't come around often. If you've been waiting for the right one, this is it.

15. 2026-05-06
    price $300,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Some homes check boxes. This one changes your mornings. Set in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision, this beautifully constructed 2021-built home offers the kind of lifestyle most people spend years searching for. Inside, the open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces that makes everyday living feel effortless and entertaining feel easy. With 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, there's room for everyone whether you're growing a family, hosting guests, or simply enjoying the space you deserve. Step outside and you're reminded why Canyon Creek is one of the area's most desirable addresses. The peaceful, country feel is real, but so is the convenience. Granbury's historic downtown square, local dining, and shopping are just minutes away, and easy highway access means your commute doesn't have to define your day. Homes like this don't come around often. If you've been waiting for the right one, this is it.

16. 2026-04-25
    price $310,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Some homes check boxes. This one changes your mornings. Set in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision, this beautifully constructed 2021-built home offers the kind of lifestyle most people spend years searching for. Inside, the open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces that makes everyday living feel effortless and entertaining feel easy. With 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, there's room for everyone whether you're growing a family, hosting guests, or simply enjoying the space you deserve. Step outside and you're reminded why Canyon Creek is one of the area's most desirable addresses. The peaceful, country feel is real, but so is the convenience. Granbury's historic downtown square, local dining, and shopping are just minutes away, and easy highway access means your commute doesn't have to define your day. Homes like this don't come around often. If you've been waiting for the right one, this is it.

17. 2026-04-19
    listed $320,000 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Some homes check boxes. This one changes your mornings. Set in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision, this beautifully constructed 2021-built home offers the kind of lifestyle most people spend years searching for. Inside, the open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces that makes everyday living feel effortless and entertaining feel easy. With 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, there's room for everyone whether you're growing a family, hosting guests, or simply enjoying the space you deserve. Step outside and you're reminded why Canyon Creek is one of the area's most desirable addresses. The peaceful, country feel is real, but so is the convenience. Granbury's historic downtown square, local dining, and shopping are just minutes away, and easy highway access means your commute doesn't have to define your day. Homes like this don't come around often. If you've been waiting for the right one, this is it.

18. 2024-12-15
    historical $2,250
19. 2024-11-04
    historical
20. 2024-10-04
    listed $2,250
21. 2024-09-09
    price $290,000
22. 2024-08-16
    price $323,000
23. 2024-07-26
    price $343,000
24. 2024-07-12
    price $345,000
25. 2024-06-27
    price $345,500
26. 2024-06-14
    listed $346,000 Active
27. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus Closed
28. 2022-03-02
    status Pending
29. 2022-02-21
    status Pending
30. 2022-01-09
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2021-12-17
    listed $315,000 Active
32. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus
33. 2021-07-01
    soldstatus
34. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus
36. 2021-05-02
    status Pending
37. 2021-04-05
    status Active
38. 2021-03-31
    status Pending
39. 2021-03-23
    listed $19,000 Active
40. 1988-09-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,415/yr (+$118/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,801
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1452.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-15 Rental Removed $2,250 NTREIS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,250 NTREIS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $323,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $343,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $345,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $346,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-12-17 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-04-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-03-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-03-23 Listed $19,000 NTREIS
• 1988-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+35.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,801 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.