2500 N State Highway 59 #36 · Merced, CA 95348

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 314 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $60k · 16% over ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2-Bed, 2-Bath mobile home in a peaceful 55+ community. This bright and inviting residence features a spacious living room with large windows that fill the space with natural light, as well as a separate family room for added comfort. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, granite countertops, and a functional layout. The primary suite includes mirrored closets, an ensuite bath with a relaxing tub. The second bedroom also enjoys direct access to its own bathroom. Additional highlights include ceiling fans, an indoor laundry room with cabinets, and a welcoming layout designed for easy living. Located in a friendly senior park, this home combines convenience, comfort, and community living.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Primary suite
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mobile home park (Riviera Holiday Mobile Estates)
• Financial info: Land lease: $610/month
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community has curbs and sidewalks; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Riviera Holiday Mobile Estates (park name)
• Utilities: Public water (district); No sewer/septic listed
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Model: SILVERCRESTMA); Mobile home remains on site; Front entry
• Construction: Mobile home, approximately 12 ft by 60 ft; One story
• Exterior features: Lawn; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace (heating)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Single-level home with front entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $799 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.40%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,480
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 N Highway 59 #70	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$61,000	$42	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $34,429
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $75,771
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95348

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $847	-5% $823	+0% $799	+5% $775	+10% $751
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $729	+0% $799	+5% $869	+10% $939
Rate	-1.0pp $834	-0.5pp $817	base $799	+0.5pp $781	+1.0pp $762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 Willowbrook Dr Unit 2962-28 Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,775	$1.63	22d	1	0.22mi
1935 V St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,800	$1.41	22d	1	0.44mi
1836 Cheyenne Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,929	$1.72	14d	1	0.54mi
1422 Lansing St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,900	$1.60	14d	1	0.80mi
1331 Frankfort Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,600	$1.20	14d	1	0.83mi
1859 Heritage Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,700	$1.66	14d	1	0.84mi
3219 Denver Ave Unit 3221 Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	14d	1	0.86mi
937 W 20th St Unit 937-939 Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,725	$1.19	14d	1	0.95mi
929 W 22nd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,595	$1.70	14d	1	0.97mi
2029 O St Merced, CA	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,795	$1.24	14d	1	1.07mi
820 W 23rd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,750	$1.73	14d	1	1.08mi
2415 O St Unit 2419 Merced, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	1.12mi
3521 San Francisco St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,100	$1.15	22d	1	1.26mi
925 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,350	$1.75	14d	3	1.36mi
2929 M St Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	1397	$1,888	$1.35	14d	1	1.42mi
777 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,139	$1.41	14d	2	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 296 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 295 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 294 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 293 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 292 DOM
17. 2025-12-04
    price $70,000
18. 2025-11-03
    price $75,000
19. 2025-08-11
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $7,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,540
• Household income: $64,944
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 23% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.74%
• Current HPI: 247.7309
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $85,000 CRMLS