2167 Vittoria Ct #49 · Lake Arbor, MD 20721

$200,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,299 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2002 $590/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

Key facts

• Gated community
• $590 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ACCESSIBILITY TO SHOPPING
• ACCESSIBILITY TO SCHOOLS
• ACCESSIBILITY TO HEALTHCARE
• CONVENIENCE TO WASHINGTON D C

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $590; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, insurance, front/rear/side lawn care and maintenance, management, pool(s), reserve funds, road maintenance, security gate, and snow removal; Community amenities include billiard room, clubhouse, exercise room, party room, and outdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside access and front entry; Garage door opener; One garage parking space
• Security: Community security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Senior community (55+)
• Construction: Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Community pool; Above-grade and below-grade other structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; One upper-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full baths on the main level; One full bath on the upper level; Three full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Multiple access exits (2+)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Arbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in MD, #1,850 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $521,873
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2167 Vittoria Ct #49	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,299 (0%)	1mo	$304,500	$132	99
2001 Upshire Ct #67	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,313 (+1%)	3mo	$375,000	$162	83
1957 Barrington Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,206 (-4%)	2mo	$430,000	$195	70
1705 Barrington Ct	0.34mi	2/3.5 (-1)	2,190 (-5%)	2mo	$420,000	$192	68
1810 Spanish Oak Ln	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,401 (+4%)	0mo	$485,000	$202	60
2124 Garden Grove Ln	0.61mi	3/3.5	2,215 (-4%)	4mo	$535,000	$242	60
10020 Juniper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,028 (-12%)	5mo	$460,000	$227	57
10018 Greenspire Way	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,972 (-14%)	4mo	$450,000	$228	44
1706 Spanish Oak Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,640 (+15%)	8mo	$475,000	$180	38
9611 Good Faith Way Lot 36	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,011 (-12%)	4mo	$509,999	$254	35
1615 Morning Star Ct Lot 51	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,011 (-12%)	6mo	$536,788	$267	33
1617 Morning Star Ct Lot 52	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,011 (-12%)	7mo	$499,620	$248	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-456
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,709
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20721

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$614 /mo · $7,372/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$590
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,958

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $629	+0% $572	+5% $515	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $426	+0% $572	+5% $717	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $673	-0.5pp $623	base $572	+0.5pp $520	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1704 Pinecone Ct Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	2504	$2,999	$1.20	45d	1	0.29mi
9802 Summerton Dr Unit 1061317P Bowie, MD	3.0	3.5	2464	$5,928	$2.41	0d	1	0.39mi
9715 Summerton Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	3.5	1936	$3,900	$2.01	0d	1	0.44mi
9715 Summerton Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	3.5	1936	$4,000	$2.07	45d	1	0.44mi
1711 Crimson Pl Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	2400	$3,279	$1.37	18d	1	0.48mi
10016 Greenspire Way Bowie, MD	4.0	2.5	1900	$2,850	$1.50	25d	1	0.51mi
9611 Juniper Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	4.0	1781	$3,995	$2.24	45d	1	0.52mi
2601 Cranapple Ln Springdale, MD	3.0	4.0	2465	$3,500	$1.42	45d	1	0.69mi
9614 Smithview Pl Lanham, MD	3.0	3.0	2491	$3,900	$1.57	45d	1	0.98mi
9623 Smithview Pl Lanham, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$3,300	$1.72	25d	1	1.01mi
2531 Standifer Pl Lanham, MD	4.0	3.5	1620	$3,300	$2.04	25d	1	1.03mi
9303 Geaton Park Pl Lanham, MD	2.0	1.0	3026	$1,900	$0.63	20d	1	1.05mi
9026 Ruby Lockhart Blvd Lanham, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$3,250	$2.01	25d	1	1.06mi
9026 Ruby Lockhart Blvd Lanham, MD	3.0	3.0	1620	$3,250	$2.01	0d	1	1.06mi
2511 Sir Michael Pl Lanham, MD	2.0	1.0	3058	$2,500	$0.82	14d	1	1.09mi
9016 Lake Largo Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	2.5	2080	$3,500	$1.68	25d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $590 · $7,080/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2020-03-23
   soldstatus $332,500
4. 2020-03-02
   soldstatus $332,500 Closed 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

5. 2020-02-20
   status Pending 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

6. 2020-01-15
   price $338,888 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

7. 2019-12-16
   listed $339,888 Active 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

8. 2019-12-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Renovated home in sought after 55 and Older Gated Community in Bowie! New paint , New carpet, new granite. One of Collington's Larger Villas ~ Sought-after amenities include Master Suite on Main Level * Living & Dining Rm, Kitchen and Breakfast Area * Laundry/Mud Room * * Upper Level HUGE bedroom with extended sleeping area with Walk-In Closet * & Full Bath * and Storage Area. DON'T MISS THIS ONE!

9. 2019-11-30
   status Active
10. 2019-11-25
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2019-11-23
    status Active
12. 2019-09-24
    status Pending
13. 2019-08-02
    listed $339,999 Active
14. 2004-02-20
    historical
15. 2003-11-03
    soldstatus $290,000
16. 2003-08-28
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,372 · $614/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,372 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$7,372
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,534
• − Management: −$3,534
• − HOA: −$7,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $4,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $5,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lake Arbor

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arbor, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,032
• Household income: $163,105
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% White 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.18%
• Current HPI: 254.2113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-31.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $332,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-02 Sold (MLS) $332,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-15 Price Changed $338,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-16 Listed $339,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-02 Listed $339,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-02-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-28 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,372 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.