2505 Jackson #138 · Escalon, CA 95320

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,129 sqft · Manufactured · 425 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $115/sqft · 30% above area Est $100k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 2bd/2bath, 1129 sq ft home is located in the 55+ community of Almond Grove. The minute you walk in it feels like home! The home was placed into the park and is for sale by the original owner. .a rare find! East facing covered porch is the perfect place to enjoy quite time, anytime! Once inside the open living room, dining room and kitchen makes it easy to relax and enjoy being home! Down the hallway will be the spacious 2nd bedroom, full bath and primary suite with a spa like feel bathroom! Off of the kitchen you will find the office area, pantry and laundry. A door leading you out to the carport, backyard walkway, beautiful side yard and front beauty of Rose trees. Enjo

Key facts

• Pantry
• Beautiful side yard
• Office area

Tags

• EAST FACING COVERED PORCH
• OFFICE AREA
• PANTRY
• LAUNDRY
• BACKYARD WALKWAY
• BEAUTIFUL SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.0% in Escalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#847 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Escalon Unified (town): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #258 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dent Elementary (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #712 of 1,571 statewide, top 46%, 668 students, 42% FRL); El Portal Middle (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #181 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 588 students, 44% FRL); Escalon High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 812 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,900
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 30.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,045
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $31,585
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95320

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $407	+0% $362	+5% $317	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $299	+0% $362	+5% $425	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $395	base $362	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2174 Coley Ave Apt 34 Escalon, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,525	$2.03	15d	1	0.65mi
2174 Coley Ave Apt 32 Escalon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,650	$1.74	15d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 425 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 423 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $129,900 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,900 Active 419 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,900 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 416 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,900 Active 415 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,423
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$581
• After-tax cash flow: $3,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2bd/2bath home in Almond Grove is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and replacing window screens will enhance curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen backsplash — existing tile
• Minor bathroom vanity — existing fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace window screens — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Resale update kitchen backsplash — modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Resale update bathroom vanity — modernizes bathroom and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen backsplash · existing tile	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom vanity · existing fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace window screens — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update kitchen backsplash — modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale update bathroom vanity — modernizes bathroom and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escalon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612840
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,800
• Composite: 31.95/100
• National rank: #5844
• State rank: #258 of 517 in CA

Livability — Escalon

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #847
• US rank: #23351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escalon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,511

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Russian 13% Iranian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.16%
• Current HPI: 289.011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B