630 Drake Dr · Marion, TX 78124

$248,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $115/sqft · 13% below area Est $287k · 13% under $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 778 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,753 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,426
• List price: $248,900
• Delta: -13.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5108 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-0%)	1mo	$257,999	$119	96
5102 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-13%)	1mo	$252,999	$134	77
5132 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	2mo	$249,999	$133	76
15412 Harvest Fld	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	0mo	$229,999	$123	74
605 Drake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	1mo	$241,999	$130	74
629 Drake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	1mo	$239,999	$129	73
642 Drake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	1mo	$233,999	$125	73
2220 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-15%)	2mo	$222,999	$121	71
2212 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-15%)	3mo	$221,999	$120	71
930 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,149 (-1%)	3mo	$273,999	$128	70
2215 Laurie Spgs	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-13%)	3mo	$253,999	$134	70
914 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+4%)	2mo	$287,999	$127	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,165
• Equity at exit: $37,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-71,215
• Equity at exit: $21,520

Cash invested: $69,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $255,786 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 778
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,734/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,294

Max offer price $210,461

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-180	+0% $-266	+5% $-352	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-343	+0% $-266	+5% $-188	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-202	base $-266	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,225
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	109d	1	0.03mi
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	109d	1	0.03mi
312 N Lavernia Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$2,200	$1.28	55d	1	0.44mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	115d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $275 quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water service: GVSUDSewer service: GVSUDGas supplier: CenterPointElectricity supplier: GVECGarbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding and cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Park/playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast barKitchen dimensions: 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 12Bedroom 3: 9 x 14Bedroom 4: 9 x 14Primary bedroom dimensions: 13 x 15
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideAll bedrooms on upper levelWalk-in closetsLaundry room (upper level)
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry located on upper levelUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $248,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $248,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $248,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $248,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $248,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $248,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $248,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $248,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $248,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $248,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $248,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $248,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    statusdays on market $248,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 33 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 32 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 31 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 30 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    remarks 699-char remark
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 29 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 28 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 27 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 26 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $248,900 Price Change 25 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    pricestatusdays on market $248,900 Price Change 24 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    statusdays on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,900 New 10 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $249,900 New 9 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $249,900 New 8 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $249,900 New 7 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $249,900 New 6 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $249,900 New 5 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $249,900 New 3 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $249,900 New 2 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    remarks 540-char remark
47. 2026-09-22
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $249,900 New 1 DOM
48. 2026-08-17
    statusdays on market $244,999 Pending 83 DOM

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

49. 2026-08-16
    days on market $244,999 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-08-15
    days on market $244,999 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$3,734
• − Insurance: −$1,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,241
• Taxable loss: −$7,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious floor plan and is set to be completed in August 2026. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and interior updates that can be made to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Newer, energy-efficient appliances can boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $275 quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water service: GVSUDSewer service: GVSUDGas supplier: CenterPointElectricity supplier: GVECGarbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding and cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Park/playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast barKitchen dimensions: 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 12Bedroom 3: 9 x 14Bedroom 4: 9 x 14Primary bedroom dimensions: 13 x 15
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideAll bedrooms on upper levelWalk-in closetsLaundry room (upper level)
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry located on upper levelUtility room inside

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-22 Listed $249,900 LERA
• 2026-09-08 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2026-08-17 Pending — LERA
• 2026-08-04 Price Changed $244,999 LERA
• 2026-07-28 Price Changed $246,999 LERA
• 2026-07-08 Price Changed $247,999 LERA
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $246,999 LERA
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $247,999 LERA
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $250,999 LERA
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $253,999 LERA
• 2026-05-26 Listed $255,999 LERA