21405 Horseshoe Loop · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1983 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Year built: public records; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.05%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7106 Chippewa Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+12%)	20mo	$195,000	$120	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $47,943
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $118,094
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $970	-5% $950	+0% $930	+5% $911	+10% $891
Rent	-10% $786	-5% $858	+0% $930	+5% $1,003	+10% $1,075
Rate	-1.0pp $966	-0.5pp $948	base $930	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21475 Coyote Trl Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	44d	1	0.26mi
21475 Coyote Trl #2 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,095	$1.22	25d	1	0.26mi
20703 Ridgeview Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,200	$1.21	5d	1	0.72mi
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	5d	1	0.99mi
5916 Lago Vista Way Unit B-10 UP Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,295	$1.17	44d	1	1.47mi
5914 Lago Vista Way Unit C23 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,295	$1.25	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-21
   price
3. 2026-02-04
   listed Active
4. 2020-01-30
   soldstatus
5. 2006-04-07
   soldstatus
6. 2006-04-07
   soldstatus
7. 2001-11-08
   soldstatus
8. 2001-10-26
   soldstatus
9. 1985-04-03
   soldstatus
10. 1984-01-27
    soldstatus
11. 1983-06-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $10,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,571
• After-tax cash flow: $8,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,423 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.